警惕高油价推升通胀风险压制股市
文/黄辉
油价已成为时下最热的话题。
美国石油储备出乎意料地减少，以及国际能源机构降低石油供应预测，导致石油价格不断上涨。近期国际油价几乎每天都在刷新历史高点，5月22日已经突破每桶135美元，再创有史以来新高。油价毫无阻拦的疯涨，正在全球范围内引发新的恐慌和不安。
毫无疑问，全球经济已步入高油价时代。这将对全球经济和通胀带来不可忽视的压力。这将是自上世纪70年代以来，油价对人类生活打击最大的一次。但与70年代不同的是，2005年以前欧美等国因国内已成功向服务经济转型，高油价对刚刚进入重化工时代的中国等新兴工业国产生的冲击可能更大于发达国家，欧美等国反而利用中国等输出的低价工业品平抑了本国的物价指数。但是2006年美国施行生物能源法案后，国际市场大宗商品价格纷纷暴涨，中国等新兴工业国已无法自己消化高企的成本，出口商品价格开始攀升，疯狂的石油终于将全球经济推入风雨飘摇之中。
在我国石油对外依存度不断提高的情况下，高油价对于我国经济的负面影响巨大。2000年中国原油净进口量仅6000万吨。2007年我国原油净进口量飙升至15928万吨，同比增长14.7%，我国原油对外依存度高达46%。中国原油需求的迅速增加，打破了原有的原油市场供求格局。作为经济高速增长的发展中大国，特别是进入以重化工业为主导的经济结构状态下，我国石油需求呈现强劲增长趋势。自2003年始我国就已成为世界上仅次于美国的第二大石油消费国。由于生产与消费缺口逐年增长，我国只能依靠进口石油来满足国内石油消费需求，尤其近年原油进口增幅明显扩大，致使我国石油对外依存度不断提高。
随着油价的飙升，中国传统制造企业已无力通过自身消化成本上涨。2007年由于化纤原料价格爬升，中国服装企业的利润空间受到了极大压缩，再加上出口退税率降低等税收因素影响，纺织服装出口企业的毛利率大降。其他“中国制造”类出口外向型行业亦呈类似状况。
近半年来迅速攀升的CPI指数表明，石油煤炭等上游生产原料价格的上涨因素终于传导到下游消费品环节。在成本推动和需求放缓同时发生的环境中，传统的制造业企业将面临较大的挑战，利润率水平不可避免地受到两边挤压：一方面上游成本显著上升（主要是能源、土地、水等资源、原材料价格上涨加快、环保节能等措施的加强、高素质劳动力成本上升）；另一方面非食品产品的价格受外需放缓因素和国家临时价格管制提价能力受到限制。
而这又造成机构投资者下调了对持续高通胀背景下企业利润的预期，使得其对很多行业特别是周期性行业的股票估值抱着较谨慎的态度。考虑到经济增速和企业利润下调的因素，加上市场弱市状态，经过反复波动后，A股平均市盈率很可能进一步向2005年的水平并与H股的国际估值水平接轨。因此投资者现阶段选股关注的焦点应在于企业化解成本上涨的能力，即稳定的利润率水平和减少盈利增长不确定性的能力。
目前国际投行将石油的中长期价格定位在200美元。这将对中国政府是否能够控制住高企的通胀带来巨大压力，也会对石油替代性产业带来更多的关注和机遇。油价的持续“高烧”引发人们对未来能源供需及价格的深切关注，并且促使人们寻求石油的替代品。煤炭与新能源等石油的替代品在高油价已成事实的背景下，许多机构都会不约而同地对煤炭与新能源板块表现出浓厚的兴趣。在这种背景下，A股市场上煤炭和新能源板块成了香饽饽，受到了各方资金的持续追捧。有机构研究报告提出，今年下半年煤价涨幅预计还将超过1季度，同期行业成本增长预期低于价格涨幅，行业效益还将继续向好，行业景气度也将随之进一步提升。
高油价进一步推高通胀几乎是必然的，而政府是否能够控制住通胀的恶化仍是悬念，但“高通胀无牛市”的结论也是我们投资者应该重视和反思的。在当前的弱势市场中，市场基本只会出现局部上升行情，市场有限的机会可能集中在少数的通胀受益型板块上。采取阶段性控制仓位，在资产配置上考虑通胀受益的上游资源性行业（例如煤炭或农产品行业），或股价具有相对防御性、属于“通胀受益+消费内需+弱周期”的行业（如零售百货、医药卫生、高端食品饮料、通讯设备及新技术新能源等未来有相对确定性的行业），从中寻求估值合理的投资机会，仍是必要的策略。（2008-5-23）
Guard against high oil prices pushed up inflation risk suppression of the stock market
Guard against high oil prices pushed up inflation risk suppression of the stock market
/ Huang Hui
Oil prices have become among the hottest topic of conversation.
U.S. oil reserve to reduce the unexpected, as well as the International Energy Agency reduced oil supply forecast, leading to rising oil prices. Recent international oil prices are updated almost daily record highs, May 22 has surpassed 135 U.S. dollars per barrel, a new high in history. There is no blocking of oil prices Feng Zhang, is the global level to trigger a new alarm and unease.
There is no doubt that the global economy has entered the era of high oil prices. This will bring the global economy and inflation pressure can not be ignored. This will be since the 1970s, oil prices on human life against one of the biggest. But with the 1970s difference is that in 2005 before Europe and the United States and other countries have been successful due to service domestic economic restructuring, high oil prices on the heavy chemical industry has just entered the era of emerging industrial countries, including China, the impact may be greater in developed countries, Europe and the United States , And other countries instead of China and other low-priced industrial products output level to the national price index. But in 2006 the United States after the implementation of bio-energy bills, the international market commodity prices are skyrocketing, China and other emerging industrial countries have been unable to digest their high cost, export prices began to rise, crazy oil finally pushed into the global economy in precarious.
China‘s dependence on foreign oil continue to improve the situation, high oil prices on China‘s tremendous negative impact on the economy. China‘s net imports of crude oil in 2000 only 60 million tons. 2007 China‘s net imports of crude oil surged to 159.28 million tons, an increase of 14.7 percent, China‘s dependence on foreign oil as high as 46 percent. China‘s rapid increase in demand for crude oil, breaking the original oil market supply and demand pattern. As a large developing country with rapid economic growth, especially into the heavy chemical industry led to the economic structure of state, the demand for oil in China showed strong growth trend. Since 2003 China had only become the world‘s second largest after the United States of oil-consuming countries. As production and consumption growth in the gap year after year, China can only rely on imported oil to meet domestic demand for oil consumption, particularly in recent years expanded significantly increase crude oil imports, resulting in China‘s dependence on foreign oil continues to increase.
With oil prices soaring, traditional Chinese manufacturing enterprises have adopted their own inability to absorb rising costs. 2007 because of chemical fiber raw materials prices climb, the profits of Chinese clothing enterprises has been greatly compressed space, coupled with lower export tax rebate rate and other tax factors, textile and garment export business gross margin dropped significantly. Other "Made in China" export-oriented industries亦呈similar condition.
The rapid rise of the past six months CPI index showed that the oil upstream production of coal and other raw materials prices rose factors finally transmitted to the lower reaches of consumer goods sectors. In cost-push and demand for simultaneous slowdown in the environment, the traditional manufacturing enterprises will face greater challenges, the level of profit margins inevitably be squeezed on both sides: On the one hand, a notable increase of upstream costs (mainly energy, land, water , And other resources, raw material price increases to accelerate, environmental protection and energy conservation measures such as the strengthening of high-quality labor costs increased) other non-food product prices by the slowdown in external demand factors and the state temporary price control price increases capacity is limited.
This in turn caused institutional investors to cut against the background of sustained high inflation is expected corporate profits, making its many industries particularly cyclical industry valuation of the stock holding more cautious approach. Taking into account economic growth and corporate profits decline, coupled with market Ruoshi, and after repeated after the fluctuations, A shares average price-earnings ratio is likely further to the 2005 level and H-share valuation of the international level convergence. So stock investors at this stage the focus of attention is that enterprises should be the ability to defuse rising costs, a stable level of profitability and profit growth to reduce the capacity of uncertainty.
The international cast of the long-term oil prices will be targeted at 200 U.S. dollars. This will be whether the Chinese government to control high inflation brought about tremendous pressure, will replace the oil industry will bring more attention and opportunities. Oil prices continued to "high fever" caused people in the future energy supply and demand and price of deep concern, and prompted people to seek alternatives to oil. New energy sources such as coal and oil as a substitute for the fact that high oil prices have become the background, many agencies will coincidentally with the new energy of coal plates showed intense interest. In this context, A stock market coal and new energy into Xiang Bobo plate by all sides continue funding sought after. Research institutions have to report, the second half of this year or coal prices is expected to be more than one quarter of the same period, industry growth is expected to cost less than the price gains, efficiency of the sector will continue to improve, the economy of the industry will go further improve.
High oil prices push up inflation further is almost inevitable, but whether the Government to curb the deterioration of inflation is still suspense, but "no bull market of high inflation," the conclusions of our investors should pay attention and reflection. In the current weak market, the market for only a partial increase in prices, the market may be limited opportunities concentrated in a few of the benefits of inflation on the plate. To take interim control of positions in asset allocation for inflation benefit from the upstream of resources industry (such as coal or agricultural industries), or stock prices are relatively defensive, belonging to "benefit from inflation + + weak domestic consumption cycle," the industry (such as retail Department stores, medical and health, high-end food and beverage, communications equipment and new energy, new technologies, such as the relative uncertainty of the future industries), to seek a reasonable valuation of investment opportunities, the strategy is still necessary. (2008-5-23)
文/黄辉
油价已成为时下最热的话题。
美国石油储备出乎意料地减少，以及国际能源机构降低石油供应预测，导致石油价格不断上涨。近期国际油价几乎每天都在刷新历史高点，5月22日已经突破每桶135美元，再创有史以来新高。油价毫无阻拦的疯涨，正在全球范围内引发新的恐慌和不安。
毫无疑问，全球经济已步入高油价时代。这将对全球经济和通胀带来不可忽视的压力。这将是自上世纪70年代以来，油价对人类生活打击最大的一次。但与70年代不同的是，2005年以前欧美等国因国内已成功向服务经济转型，高油价对刚刚进入重化工时代的中国等新兴工业国产生的冲击可能更大于发达国家，欧美等国反而利用中国等输出的低价工业品平抑了本国的物价指数。但是2006年美国施行生物能源法案后，国际市场大宗商品价格纷纷暴涨，中国等新兴工业国已无法自己消化高企的成本，出口商品价格开始攀升，疯狂的石油终于将全球经济推入风雨飘摇之中。
在我国石油对外依存度不断提高的情况下，高油价对于我国经济的负面影响巨大。2000年中国原油净进口量仅6000万吨。2007年我国原油净进口量飙升至15928万吨，同比增长14.7%，我国原油对外依存度高达46%。中国原油需求的迅速增加，打破了原有的原油市场供求格局。作为经济高速增长的发展中大国，特别是进入以重化工业为主导的经济结构状态下，我国石油需求呈现强劲增长趋势。自2003年始我国就已成为世界上仅次于美国的第二大石油消费国。由于生产与消费缺口逐年增长，我国只能依靠进口石油来满足国内石油消费需求，尤其近年原油进口增幅明显扩大，致使我国石油对外依存度不断提高。
随着油价的飙升，中国传统制造企业已无力通过自身消化成本上涨。2007年由于化纤原料价格爬升，中国服装企业的利润空间受到了极大压缩，再加上出口退税率降低等税收因素影响，纺织服装出口企业的毛利率大降。其他“中国制造”类出口外向型行业亦呈类似状况。
近半年来迅速攀升的CPI指数表明，石油煤炭等上游生产原料价格的上涨因素终于传导到下游消费品环节。在成本推动和需求放缓同时发生的环境中，传统的制造业企业将面临较大的挑战，利润率水平不可避免地受到两边挤压：一方面上游成本显著上升（主要是能源、土地、水等资源、原材料价格上涨加快、环保节能等措施的加强、高素质劳动力成本上升）；另一方面非食品产品的价格受外需放缓因素和国家临时价格管制提价能力受到限制。
而这又造成机构投资者下调了对持续高通胀背景下企业利润的预期，使得其对很多行业特别是周期性行业的股票估值抱着较谨慎的态度。考虑到经济增速和企业利润下调的因素，加上市场弱市状态，经过反复波动后，A股平均市盈率很可能进一步向2005年的水平并与H股的国际估值水平接轨。因此投资者现阶段选股关注的焦点应在于企业化解成本上涨的能力，即稳定的利润率水平和减少盈利增长不确定性的能力。
目前国际投行将石油的中长期价格定位在200美元。这将对中国政府是否能够控制住高企的通胀带来巨大压力，也会对石油替代性产业带来更多的关注和机遇。油价的持续“高烧”引发人们对未来能源供需及价格的深切关注，并且促使人们寻求石油的替代品。煤炭与新能源等石油的替代品在高油价已成事实的背景下，许多机构都会不约而同地对煤炭与新能源板块表现出浓厚的兴趣。在这种背景下，A股市场上煤炭和新能源板块成了香饽饽，受到了各方资金的持续追捧。有机构研究报告提出，今年下半年煤价涨幅预计还将超过1季度，同期行业成本增长预期低于价格涨幅，行业效益还将继续向好，行业景气度也将随之进一步提升。
高油价进一步推高通胀几乎是必然的，而政府是否能够控制住通胀的恶化仍是悬念，但“高通胀无牛市”的结论也是我们投资者应该重视和反思的。在当前的弱势市场中，市场基本只会出现局部上升行情，市场有限的机会可能集中在少数的通胀受益型板块上。采取阶段性控制仓位，在资产配置上考虑通胀受益的上游资源性行业（例如煤炭或农产品行业），或股价具有相对防御性、属于“通胀受益+消费内需+弱周期”的行业（如零售百货、医药卫生、高端食品饮料、通讯设备及新技术新能源等未来有相对确定性的行业），从中寻求估值合理的投资机会，仍是必要的策略。（2008-5-23）
Guard against high oil prices pushed up inflation risk suppression of the stock market
Guard against high oil prices pushed up inflation risk suppression of the stock market
/ Huang Hui
Oil prices have become among the hottest topic of conversation.
U.S. oil reserve to reduce the unexpected, as well as the International Energy Agency reduced oil supply forecast, leading to rising oil prices. Recent international oil prices are updated almost daily record highs, May 22 has surpassed 135 U.S. dollars per barrel, a new high in history. There is no blocking of oil prices Feng Zhang, is the global level to trigger a new alarm and unease.
There is no doubt that the global economy has entered the era of high oil prices. This will bring the global economy and inflation pressure can not be ignored. This will be since the 1970s, oil prices on human life against one of the biggest. But with the 1970s difference is that in 2005 before Europe and the United States and other countries have been successful due to service domestic economic restructuring, high oil prices on the heavy chemical industry has just entered the era of emerging industrial countries, including China, the impact may be greater in developed countries, Europe and the United States , And other countries instead of China and other low-priced industrial products output level to the national price index. But in 2006 the United States after the implementation of bio-energy bills, the international market commodity prices are skyrocketing, China and other emerging industrial countries have been unable to digest their high cost, export prices began to rise, crazy oil finally pushed into the global economy in precarious.
China‘s dependence on foreign oil continue to improve the situation, high oil prices on China‘s tremendous negative impact on the economy. China‘s net imports of crude oil in 2000 only 60 million tons. 2007 China‘s net imports of crude oil surged to 159.28 million tons, an increase of 14.7 percent, China‘s dependence on foreign oil as high as 46 percent. China‘s rapid increase in demand for crude oil, breaking the original oil market supply and demand pattern. As a large developing country with rapid economic growth, especially into the heavy chemical industry led to the economic structure of state, the demand for oil in China showed strong growth trend. Since 2003 China had only become the world‘s second largest after the United States of oil-consuming countries. As production and consumption growth in the gap year after year, China can only rely on imported oil to meet domestic demand for oil consumption, particularly in recent years expanded significantly increase crude oil imports, resulting in China‘s dependence on foreign oil continues to increase.
With oil prices soaring, traditional Chinese manufacturing enterprises have adopted their own inability to absorb rising costs. 2007 because of chemical fiber raw materials prices climb, the profits of Chinese clothing enterprises has been greatly compressed space, coupled with lower export tax rebate rate and other tax factors, textile and garment export business gross margin dropped significantly. Other "Made in China" export-oriented industries亦呈similar condition.
The rapid rise of the past six months CPI index showed that the oil upstream production of coal and other raw materials prices rose factors finally transmitted to the lower reaches of consumer goods sectors. In cost-push and demand for simultaneous slowdown in the environment, the traditional manufacturing enterprises will face greater challenges, the level of profit margins inevitably be squeezed on both sides: On the one hand, a notable increase of upstream costs (mainly energy, land, water , And other resources, raw material price increases to accelerate, environmental protection and energy conservation measures such as the strengthening of high-quality labor costs increased) other non-food product prices by the slowdown in external demand factors and the state temporary price control price increases capacity is limited.
This in turn caused institutional investors to cut against the background of sustained high inflation is expected corporate profits, making its many industries particularly cyclical industry valuation of the stock holding more cautious approach. Taking into account economic growth and corporate profits decline, coupled with market Ruoshi, and after repeated after the fluctuations, A shares average price-earnings ratio is likely further to the 2005 level and H-share valuation of the international level convergence. So stock investors at this stage the focus of attention is that enterprises should be the ability to defuse rising costs, a stable level of profitability and profit growth to reduce the capacity of uncertainty.
The international cast of the long-term oil prices will be targeted at 200 U.S. dollars. This will be whether the Chinese government to control high inflation brought about tremendous pressure, will replace the oil industry will bring more attention and opportunities. Oil prices continued to "high fever" caused people in the future energy supply and demand and price of deep concern, and prompted people to seek alternatives to oil. New energy sources such as coal and oil as a substitute for the fact that high oil prices have become the background, many agencies will coincidentally with the new energy of coal plates showed intense interest. In this context, A stock market coal and new energy into Xiang Bobo plate by all sides continue funding sought after. Research institutions have to report, the second half of this year or coal prices is expected to be more than one quarter of the same period, industry growth is expected to cost less than the price gains, efficiency of the sector will continue to improve, the economy of the industry will go further improve.
High oil prices push up inflation further is almost inevitable, but whether the Government to curb the deterioration of inflation is still suspense, but "no bull market of high inflation," the conclusions of our investors should pay attention and reflection. In the current weak market, the market for only a partial increase in prices, the market may be limited opportunities concentrated in a few of the benefits of inflation on the plate. To take interim control of positions in asset allocation for inflation benefit from the upstream of resources industry (such as coal or agricultural industries), or stock prices are relatively defensive, belonging to "benefit from inflation + + weak domestic consumption cycle," the industry (such as retail Department stores, medical and health, high-end food and beverage, communications equipment and new energy, new technologies, such as the relative uncertainty of the future industries), to seek a reasonable valuation of investment opportunities, the strategy is still necessary. (2008-5-23)