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南非抱“金砖” “差距感”激励奋发图强 高犯罪率、高艾滋病感染率、高失业率困饶
2011-02-21 15:10:00 来源: 人民网(北京)
对南非而言，刚刚过去的2010年可谓“双喜临门”——年中，在全世界的注目下成功举办世界杯足球赛，令世人刮目相看；年底，收到来自中国的“圣诞礼物”——如愿以偿成为“金砖国家”一员。这两个似乎风马牛不相及的事件，却有着一个共同点：非洲第一。特别是南非拥抱“金砖”，使“金砖四国”变为“金砖国家”，让“黄金之国”在“金砖大道”上闪光，不但对自己意义重大，而且对非洲影响深远，必将促使“金砖国家”在全球事务中发挥更大作用。
在“金砖五国”中，南非是名副其实的小弟弟。人口最少，国土面积最小，经济总量排在最末位，最后一个加入，与其他四国的差距明显。
美国中央情报局认为，南非的证券交易中心在全球排名第18位，其达沃斯世界经济论坛的金融发展指数居全球第32位。南非是一个“中等收入国家，自然资源丰富的新兴市场，其金融、司法、通讯和能源领域发展良好”。
根据2007年的人口普查结果，南非的总人口为4932万，其中黑人占79%，白人占9%，有色人约占9%，亚裔约占3%。南非总人口不但与中国13多亿和印度11.9亿无法相比，就是与巴西的将近2亿和俄罗斯1.41亿也难以相提并论。相比“金砖国家”的四个大国，南非国土面积和国内生产总值而显得相当逊色。尽管“金砖国家”之间的差别相当大，但是每个国家都有自己的优势和问题。
“新金砖”确立了南非的非洲强国地位，提升了南非的国际影响力，增加了南非的自信心，必将推动南非的经济、社会发展。
南非的社会问题可归纳为“三高一和”——高犯罪率、高艾滋病感染率、高失业率，实现种族和解。种族歧视是南非社会的痼疾，根深蒂固，阴魂难散。它像飘浮在彩虹国度上空的一片阴云，时阴便是雨;它又如蒲公英头上的小白伞——一有适当的风力就会飘起来。尽管新南非政府为实现种族和解付出了艰辛努力，取得了令人公认的成就，但真正消除种族歧视、实现种族和解仍任重道远。如果说种族问题是顽症，那么“三高”问题则是三大派生物。不但“三高”与“一和”两者之间关系密切，而且“三高”之间也互为因果，紧密牵连，形成恶性循环。高失业率在一定程度上导致高犯罪率，而高犯罪率中又不乏强奸犯罪，使受害者进而感染上艾滋病；感染上艾滋病毒，就有可能导致病毒携带者失业，加入失业大军，缺乏经济来源的失业者既有可能去以卖血谋生，又有可能走上犯罪道路……
南非政府已清楚认识到“三高一和”问题，正在采取积极有效的措施加以解决。据路透社预测，2010年南非的经济增长率为2.3％。一些专家认为，南非要成为一个富有竞争力的“金砖国家”，还必须大力加强基础设施建设、提高科研水平和寻找独特的竞争优势。第一个问题正通过“对电力、铁路、港口的大量投资”来解决。这里仅以科研为例，研发水平和研发投入是支持新兴经济体高增长的一个要素，而南非同“金砖四国” 的差距甚大。英国《经济学家》杂志的一项统计表明，2006年巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国用于研发的投入分别占当年各国GDP的1.04%、1.28%、 0.84%和1.31%,南非仅为0.74%。另外，南非还需要提高职业教育水平,培养经济发展所急需的工程技术人才、项目管理人才和大量熟练工人。
“新金砖”在增强南非自信心的同时，必将有力促进南非更多地关注非洲事务和非洲发展。路透社引用成功预言2008年金融危机的经济学教授努里尔鲁比尼的话说：“非洲是有风险的，因为这里的流动性较差，管理也不理想。但与10年前的内战和政局动荡相比，很多东西已经变好了。”非洲经济的快速复苏，有利于增强新兴经济体整体发展的力量，并为新兴经济体贡献更多的消费者和矿产资源。
祖马总统表示，到目前为止，南非仍是非洲大陆最大的投资者，南非企业在非洲建立了专家、知识和关系网。南非时事分析家珍妮特·斯查波说，南非的国内生产总值占非洲国家总和的18%，2008年，南非与其他非洲国家的贸易总额只有200亿美元，远远跟不上“金砖四国”。近年来，巴西、印度、俄罗斯和中国对非洲贸易额年均增速都在19%以上，2008年与除南非外的非洲国家的贸易总额已经达到了1510亿美元。中国商务部有关数据显示，仅2010年上半年中非贸易额就达612亿美元，同比增长65％。据统计，中非合作对非洲经济增长的贡献率已多年保持在20％以上。“金砖四国”正在改变其他国家与非洲打交道的方式，在非洲大陆影响力不断增加，“新金砖”必将促进南非更加面向非洲大陆，带动整个非洲的发展，因为南非是新兴经济体通往非洲大陆的门户。
南非成为“金砖”合作机制的成员，对南非、非洲和“金砖四国”均是一个互利共赢、多赢的战略选择，必将推动南南合作，促进全球经济均衡发展，加快联合国与国际金融体系改革等国际体系转换的步伐。
（上文由《当代世界》杂志社授权摘编，作者系中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所研究员） (本文来源：人民网 )
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| 图示∶2010年12月即将出版的《中国特色医疗金鉴》登载的刘君主任及其机构 |
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South Africa hold "BRIC" "gap being" inspired work hard with high crime rates, high HIV infection rate, struggled with high unemployment
2011-02-21 15:10:00 Source: People's Daily (Beijing)
South Africa, the just past 2010 can be described as "double happiness" - years, in the eyes of the world success of the World Cup, the world would esteem; end of the year, received from China's "Christmas gift" - got his wish to become "BRIC countries" one. These two events seem unrelated, but it has one thing in common: African first. South Africa, in particular, embrace the "BRIC", the "BRIC" to "BRIC countries", so "gold" in the "Golden Brick Road" on the flash, of great significance not only for themselves, but also far-reaching implications for Africa, will make the "BRIC countries" in the play a greater role in global affairs.
In the "BRIC Five" in South Africa is a real little brother. The smallest population, land area, the smallest, lowest ranking economic output, the last one to join, with the other four countries of the gap significantly.
The CIA believes that the securities trading center in South Africa ranked 18th in the world, the Davos World Economic Forum's Financial Development Index ranks the world's first 32-bit. South Africa is a "middle-income countries, natural resource-rich emerging markets, finance, justice, development of good communications and energy sectors."
According to the 2007 census, the total population of South Africa, 49.32 million, of which 79% of blacks, whites accounted for 9% 9% Coloureds, Asians about 3%. The total population of South Africa not only with China's 1.3 billion and 1.19 billion in India can not be compared, that is, nearly 200 million with Brazil and Russia, 141 million is difficult to compare. Compared to the "BRIC countries" of the four major powers, South Africa, land area and gross domestic product and appeared to be quite impressive. Although the "BRIC countries" significant differences between the large, but each country has its own advantages and problems.
"New Brick" has established the South African power status in Africa to improve South Africa's international influence and increase confidence in South Africa, South Africa will promote economic and social development.
South Africa's social problems can be summarized as "three high and one and" - high crime, high HIV infection rates, high unemployment and achieve racial reconciliation. Racial discrimination is a chronic disease of South African society, deeply rooted, ghosts hard scattered. It is like floating in a cloud over the rainbow nation, when the Yin is the rain; it and if the head of white dandelion umbrella - a proper wind will flutter. Although the new South African Government to achieve racial reconciliation made arduous efforts and achieved success is recognized, but really to eliminate racial discrimination and achieving racial reconciliation is still long way to go. If the race is chronic, then the "three high" issue is the three derivatives. Not only the "three high" and "one and" the close relationship between the two, and "three high" reciprocal causation between closely implicated in a vicious circle. High unemployment to some extent, lead to high crime rates, and no shortage of high crime of rape in the crime, the victim and then infected with HIV; infected with HIV virus is likely to lead to unemployment, to join ranks of the unemployed, lack of economic both possible sources of the unemployed in order to sell blood to make a living, there may be a life of crime ... ...
South African Government has a clear understanding of the "three high and one and" issues, is taking positive and effective measures to solve them. According to Reuters Estimates, 2010, South Africa's economic growth rate of 2.3%. Some experts believe that South Africa is to become a competitive "BRIC countries", we must vigorously strengthen infrastructure construction, improve the level of scientific research and find a unique competitive advantage. The first problem is through "the power, railways, ports and large investments" to resolve. Where only scientific research, for example, R & D levels and R & D investment is to support high-growth emerging economies, a factor, and South Africa with the "BRIC" great disparity. British "Economist" magazine, a survey showed that in 2006 Brazil, Russia, India and China, respectively, for R & D investment in GDP, countries accounting for 1.04%, 1.28%, 0.84% and 1.31%, only 0.74% of South Africa . In addition, South Africa also need to improve vocational education and train much-needed economic development, engineering and technical personnel, project management, and a large number of skilled workers.
"New Brick" in enhancing the confidence in South Africa, while South Africa is bound to promote greater attention to Africa and African development. Successfully predicted in 2008, Reuters cited the financial crisis economics professor Nouriel Roubini as saying: "Africa is risky, because there is poor liquidity, management is not ideal. But 10 years of civil war and compared to political turmoil, a lot of things have changed for the better. "Africa's economic recovery, emerging economies are conducive to enhancing the strength of the overall development, and emerging economies contribute more consumers and mineral resources.
President Zuma said so far, South Africa remains the continent's biggest investors, South African companies established in Africa, experts, knowledge and relationships. Analysis of current affairs in South Africa Bo Jia Zhen Ni Tesi investigation, said South Africa's GDP accounted for 18% of the total African countries, in 2008, South Africa and other African countries in total trade is only 200 billion dollars, far behind the "BRIC four countries. " In recent years, Brazil, India, Russia and China, the average annual growth rate of trade in Africa more than 19% in 2008, and the African countries except South Africa's trade volume has reached 151 billion U.S. dollars. China's Ministry of Commerce data show that only first half of 2010 China-Africa trade volume reached 61.2 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 65%. According to statistics, China-Africa Cooperation on African economic growth rates remain above 20% for many years. "BRIC" countries is changing the way of dealing with Africa, the growing influence of the African continent, "the new BRIC" will promote greater for the African continent, South Africa, led the development of the whole of Africa, because South Africa is the emerging economies a portal leading to the African continent.
South Africa as "BRIC" cooperation mechanism for members of South Africa, Africa and the "BRIC" are a mutually beneficial, win-win strategy of choice, will promote South-South cooperation and promote balanced development of the global economy, speed up the United Nations and reform of the international financial system the pace of the international system transformation.
(Above the "Contemporary World" magazine authorized excerpts, of the Academy of Social Sciences, Department of West Asian and African Research Fellow) (This article Source: People's Daily)
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