《黄金市场07年回顾与展望》

“In Retrospect and Expectation to the 2007 Gold Market”

作者： 江林

Author: Jiang Lin

2007年即将过去，在辉煌的金猪年里，中国的黄金市场经历了新一轮嬗变。国家宏观经济强劲增长，特别是在开始逐步推广对个人投资者开放的各类黄金品种，实际研究步入成熟的大背景下，黄金文化蓬勃发展，各类研究机构、媒体持续加大对国内外期货、现货黄金投资产品价格走势研究，黄金品牌的投入力度。

In the passing 2007, Chinese gold market experienced a new round of change in the year of pig (according to Chinese zodiac). Chinese macro-coordination saw an increasingly rapid growth especially at the period when various gold categories were open to private investors gradually. Gold culture enjoyed a rapid growth after the actual research became sophisticated. Various institutes and media increased greatly on the research on international or domestic future deal and in-stock-gold developing trend as well as devotions to gold brand.

在这片欣欣向荣的黄金浪潮背后，是上海黄金交易所金价创出历史最高价，突破200元/克，国际金价接近历史新高850美元/盎司，黄金价格在2001年后的大牛市行情里，已经积累了2倍的涨幅，加上具备天生的货币优势，黄金现在已经成为全球各类投资者投资保值、抵御通胀最有效的工具。本文接下来将回顾黄金价格在07的走势，并根据现在的国际政治经济情况，理顺2008年黄金投资思路。

In the following of the growing gold wave, Shang Gold Stock Exchange created a new historical height—over 200 Yuan/g, while international gold price went near to historical height $850/yonce. Gold price in 2001 bull market accumulated 2 times increase. In addition, thanks to the natural born currency advantages, gold has become the most effective tool for various a wide range of investors worldwide to accumulate money against inflation. The following article is aimed to memorize the gold price situation in 2007 and to expect the investment strategy in 2008 according to the current international political and economic situation.

2007年全球政治经济风险继续放大，美国经济受房地产次级债市场衰退影响，增长速度持续回落，这和美国在中东地区受到的军事困扰共同作用，减弱了普通民众对经济增长的预期，直接造成的现象就是美元大幅度贬值，民众满意度下降，同时金融危机通过制造业等传统工业影响到美国经济稳定性，到07年10月时，多数经济学家公开表示认为美国08年将步入衰退，这使得布什政府在12月推出了新的房地产优惠政策，很明显这对美国08年经济增长产生利好影响，但有市场人士认为美国新政的推出时间太晚，美国现在面临的已经不仅仅是房地产萧条这么简单，现在美国经济增长面临的根本问题是，中长期经济增长对短期的阻碍问题，其中国民经济增长分配目标的达成是当前困扰美国经济增长的主要问题，综合考虑到未来美国上半年将采取包括降息在内的新一轮经济调整政策，08年美国经济的这些困扰将对黄金价格增长起到一定的推动作用。

In 2007 global political and economic risks were increasing. American economy’s developing rate decreased due to a drop in real estate sales. In addition, America experienced a number of military difficulties in Middle East. A lack of confidence in American citizens was obviously conspicuous which led to a great devalue of US dollar. American people’s dissatisfaction on economy and financial crisis affected American economic stability by access of various traditional industries including manufacture. Most economists expressed worries on 2008 American economy in October in 2007. The worry pushed Bush administration to carry out a new set of policy in encouragement of real estate discounts in December. Though the policy obviously was an advantage to American economic growth, some marketing analysis thought it was too late for America to carry out new policy. American difficulties were far beyond real estate depression. In fact, the essential problem for American economic growth is the controversial limits caused by medium or long term economic growth to short term economic growth. The main problem troubling American economic growth is how to reach the target of GDP distribution. Generally speaking, given that America would carry out a new round of new policy including decreasing interests at the first half of 2008, American measures to push economic growth would, to an extent, boost international gold price.

欧洲地区，07年间结构性经济增长差异是困扰整体经济取得加速增长主要的内在因素，欧洲统一实施的政策难以得到贯彻，尽管经济情况特别是核心经济发展竞争力持续强于美国，欧洲内部国家的差异性以及国际贸易对欧洲经济增长的影响让欧洲各国普遍感到忧虑，这种忧虑和美国不同，这主要来自对全球性的经济增长预期，在 07年最后一轮欧洲利率会议过后，年度完整的宏观调控时间表已经完成，按照现在的节奏，08年初期欧洲将保持稳中偏松的宏观调控步伐。

In Europe, the internal reason for hampering European Union overall economic development is the local diversity of economic growth. The diversity resulted in entire European Unity policy’s implement. Although economic situation, especially core economic competitive force is stronger than America, the diversity of economic development and international trade in different European countries are main worries for most European countries on the expectation of future European economy. However the worry set different from that of America. The worry is on economic growth expectation on globalization. After the last round of European Interest Conference in 2007, the entire macro-coordination timetable was completed. At the beginning of 2008, Europe is expected to witness a stable and loose macro-coordination phase according to current situation.

中国现在仍然处在高通胀时期，经济核心层持续推动高度紧缩的宏观调控政策，央行今年已经进行了五次加息至3.87%，十次上调存款准备金率至14．5％，并且近期这种调控力度持续加大，受国内物价持续上涨推动，通货膨胀现象在以能源、食品、房地产市场为主的各行业迅速蔓延，12月在北京举行的中央经济工作会议显示，从上世纪开始实施的双稳健型财政货币政策结束，今后将实施稳健型财政和从紧的货币政策，暗示08年将采取有步骤的推动人民币继续升值，这从主基调上确认了今年年中开始的紧缩政策，随着奥运会的临近，亚洲主要经济体增长强劲，亚洲主要货币未来仍有继续升值的趋势。

China is ongoing a high-inflation period. The core economic level pushed the macro-coordination policy to a highly sensitive situation. China Central Bank has experienced interest plus 5 times to 3.87% and saving preparation rate 10 times to 14.5%. in addition, the recent force of macro-coordination is increasingly strong. On another hand, boosted by rising commodity prices, inflation phenomenon is increasingly popular in energy resources, food and real estate. According to the Central Economy Conference held in Beijing in December, the government will transfer the double-stable financial currency policy in 20^th century to stable financial currency policy hitherto. The transfer suggested that the government would take gradual measures to push RMB appreciate in 2008. Basically speaking, the change approved the sensitive policy originally started from June and July in 2007. With the coming near of 2008 Olympic Games, main Asian economic body is experiencing a great growth. So it’s expected that the main currency in Asia should continue to appreciate in the future.

国际关系方面，在07年，国际间军事竞争水平和往年持平，朝鲜、伊朗的核危机得到一定程度上的缓解，年中一些地区一度出现关系特别紧张的局面，最终化险为夷，这主要得益于世界多极化的发展趋势，在中印等发展中国迅速崛起，欧盟、日本对美国态度逐渐发生转变等情况下，07年国际各地域冲突被限制在局部地区，08年地域冲突向大规模发展的趋势成为国际社会普遍关注的问题，这使得黄金分析师普遍关注未来的战争预期，泛阿拉伯地区的反美势力在被美国采取军事行动持续打击下，影响力至10月已被削弱，年底稍有反弹但影响力近期很难恢复到上半年水平。

In terms of international relations, international military competitive force remained as usual in 2007. Nuclear crisis in North Korea and Iran was mitigated to a certain extent. Highly sensitive relations in some areas in the middle of the year were finally coordinated thanks to a multi-cultural development in globalization. Developing countries such as China and India were rising rapidly while European Union and Japan held an increasingly different attitude toward America. Under such situations, local conflicts were controlled in a limited scope in 2007. A main concern of international community is worry about the enlargement of local limits. The worry made gold analysis paid large attention on the military warfare in the future. Military forces in Arabian nearby areas, defeated by American military troops, were severely suppressed, though those forces saw a slight rebound at the end of 2007. It’s expected that their popularity is difficult to restore to the influential situation at the first half of the year.

在这样的国际政治经济环境下，未来投资者应根据国际间的政治经济情况，根据地域间的不平衡性对黄金品种持仓，金价经历了07年整体的冲高后，大幅强烈震荡,目前正在考验790美元/盎司价位的支撑作用（见上图），如果不考虑突发的国际关系波动，在现在的市场规模下，08年黄金价格将会保持在700至1000美元区间内大幅波动，但国际关系错综复杂，国际油价居高不下、央行售金、新兴黄金市场的开放都构成对金价走势的影响因素，同时国际黄金市场主要品种大多具有放大效应，未来实际操作应根据即时情况具体分析，国内新开的黄金期货和纸黄金投资者在未来金价主导权提高的情况下，可根据国内的政治经济情况以及国内金价中期波动率小于外盘等特点进行中线操作。

Under such international political and economic environment, future investors should maintain the current gold load according to international political and economic environment as well as the unbalanced local situations. The gold price, having experienced an entire increase and great shock in 2007, is going on a new test on set price at $790/yonce (see the picture above). Only if one gave no thought to current international relations, the gold price in 2008 would go between 700~1000 bucks under current economic situation. However the complicated international relations, rising oil price and the open of gold or new gold market of China Central Bank are influential factors that affect gold price. Meanwhile investors should know that the main gold category in international gold market is likely to have exaggeration. So it’s suggested that investors should operate according to detailed conclusions of different situations in time. New domestic future-gold investors as well as paper gold investors could choose medium-termed operation according to Chinese political and economic situations as well as the advantage of a slighter shock in domestic market under the situation of a raised leading right in future gold price.

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