世卫组织预测人类死因 艾滋病2012达顶峰
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| http://www.cnnb.com.cn 中国宁波网 12月09日 14:55 |
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据刚刚更新的世界卫生组织《全球疾病负担(global burden of disease)》报告，未来20年间抽烟的人数会不断增加，所以心脏病将继续扮演人类第一大杀手的角色，而艾滋病将在2012年达到顶峰，随后艾滋病患病人数将逐步下降。
这份报告对最近的人类死亡原因进行了对比，并着眼于全世界健康和安全趋势的变化情况。世界卫生组织通过这项研究结果，不仅可以告诉我们现在什么在不断夺走人们的生命，而且还可以告诉我们2030年人类的主要死亡原因。
世界卫生组织刚刚更新的《全球疾病负担》报告上的信息以2004年的研究资料为基础，对2030年疾病将如何对人口产生影响进行了预测。该报告预测的最有影响力的变化可能是，全球的传染病死亡率将大幅下降。2004年全球的第六大致死原因——艾滋病有望在2012年达到顶峰，2030年的排名降下至第十位。其他传染病的患病人数有望下降得更快。2004年第七大致死原因——肺结核的排名在2030年将下降至第23位。
传染病致死人数不断减少，意味着老龄化人口将不断增加，尤其在收入更低的国家，因为这些国家的人在老年阶段因患缺血性心脏病( ischemic heart disease)和癌症死亡的人数更多。但是全球的发展和行为改变也将对特定致死原因产生影响。世界卫生组织指出，中等收入和低收入国家的抽烟人数不断增加，将导致更多人死于心血管疾病、慢性肺炎和一些癌症。运输业快速发展和道路更加拥堵，将进一步助长交通事故致死人数的增加。
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稿源： 新浪科技
WHO projections of human AIDS, the cause of death in 2012 reached its peak
http://www.cnnb.com.cn Ningbo, China Network at 2:55 p.m. on December 9
According to the World Health Organization has just been updated, "the global burden of disease (global burden of disease)" report in the next 20 years, the number of smokers will rise, the human heart will continue to play the largest role of the killer, and AIDS in 2012 Peak, followed by the number of AIDS patients will gradually decline.
The recent report of the human cause of death were compared, and focus on the health and safety of the world trend of changes. The World Health Organization adopted the results of the study, not only can tell what we are constantly claiming the lives of people, but also tells us that in 2030 the leading cause of death of mankind.
The World Health Organization has just updated the "global burden of disease," the report on the information in 2004 to research-based information on the disease in 2030 will have an impact on how the population had forecast. The report forecasts the most influential change may be the world's infectious disease mortality will be substantially reduced. In 2004 the world's sixth largest cause of death - AIDS is expected to peak in 2012, ranking in 2030 down to 10th place. Other infectious diseases of the number of patients is expected to decline at a faster pace. 2004, the seventh largest cause of death - the ranking of tuberculosis in 2030 will drop to 23.
Decreasing the number of fatal infectious diseases, means that the aging population will continue to increase, particularly in lower income countries as those countries in old age due to ischemic heart disease (ischemic heart disease) and cancer deaths more . However, global development and behavior change will also have an impact on a specific cause of death. The World Health Organization pointed out that low-income and middle-income countries, the increasing number of smoking will lead to more people die of cardiovascular disease, chronic pneumonia and some cancers. The rapid development of the transport and road congestion, will provide further impetus to the increase in the number of fatal traffic accidents.
Source text: Sina Technology
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