“Ongoing tumult in capital markets has moved into a new and important phase where risks to US and world output are emerging,” says Larry Hatheway, economist at UBS: “Provided monetary policy responds in a timely manner, a global hard landing can be avoided.”
According to Mr Hatheway, that response involves cutting US interest rates by 50 basis points and reducing rates in the UK, eurozone and Japan by 25bp to offset the correction in global equity markets and the increased cost of capital for the business sector, which could slow investment spending.
However, most analysts feel policymakers will wait to gauge the effects of recent liquidity boosts before moving rates.
This week’s data releases will provide the first opportunity to assess how consumer sentiment has been affected by recent weakness in credit and equity markets.
US consumer confidence data for August, due tomorrow, are expected to decline to 105.0 after hitting a six-year high of 112.6 in July – partly as a result of strength in the labour market.
Lower petrol prices have helped US consumers but persistent weakness in the housing market will continue to weigh on sentiment.
US consumer spending managed only a marginal rise of 0.1 per cent in June and July’s data, due on Friday, will help to evaluate if this is part of a softer trend. The consensus forecast is for a rise of 0.4 per cent which would slow the year-on-year growth rate from 5.2 per cent in May to 4.6 per cent in July.
The softening in the outlook for US consumer spending is due to a collapse in mortgage equity withdrawal as the housing market slowdown has intensified. The pressure on household budgets looks set to be compounded by a slowdown in the cash delivered to consumers from buy-backs by the US corporate sector.
Prospects for an early cut in US interest rates could be clearer after the release of the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, due on Friday. The consensus forecast is for year-on-year growth in the core PCE to accelerate slightly to 2 per cent from 1.9 per cent in June.
Germany’s Ifo business climate survey for August, due on Tuesday, is expected to weaken from 106.4 in July to 105.2. Eurozone business confidence for August, due on Friday, is expected to fall from 111.0 in July to 110.2, remaining above its long-run average of 100, consistent with gross domestic product growth of about 3 per cent.
作者：英国《金融时报》克里斯•弗勒德(Chris Flood)
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