虹吸理论在黄金投资中的应用(中英)

作者：江林

 

Siphone Theory’s Application to Gold Investment

Written by Jiang Lin

 

2008年中国黄金市场由于黄金期货品种的上市，经历了新一轮大发展，在证券市场走势出现大幅回落、国民经济增长推升企业需求的情况下，市场资金开始追逐风险套利套保资产，大批资金涌入黄金市场，这直接导致国内期货市场交易量激增，根据虹吸理论对上半年交易量计算，08年国内期货市场交易量有望强劲增长50％。

 

Thanks to the beginning of future gold exchange, Chinese gold market experienced a new round of great development in 2008. Under the circumstance of great decrease in stock market and the rise in enterprises’ demand boosted by GDP’s growth, the capital market began to go after the interest and long-term arbitrage capital. A large sum of capital flowed into gold market, which directly led to the sudden increase in Chinese future exchange market. According to the turnover calculation approved by syphonage theory, Chinese future exchange market turnover is likely to increase by 50% in 2008.

 

同时，伴随期货市场交易量激增，交易所开始紧锣密鼓酝酿多种期货合约，1月9日上海期货交易所第一批0806至0812共七个黄金期货合约，正式上市交易，标志着期货行业参与金融行业业务的开始，而且下半年仍有新的期货品种推出，股指期货、利率期货、钢铁期货以及焦炭期货均在紧密研发中，期货市场大规模扩容一触即发。面对期货市场如此广阔的发展空间，黄金期货交易量的提升同时也将提升黄金的交易规模。上海黄金交易所在期货交易所推出黄金期货品种情况下，黄金现货价格依然增长强劲，上半年累计成交572吨，同比增加33％.

 

Meanwhile, with the sudden increase in future exchange turnover, exchange house began to research several types of future exchange contracts. On January 9^th, Shanghai Future Goods Exchange Centre put total 7 future gold exchange contracts (from 0806 to 0812 in the first series) on the market, which characterized the beginning of future goods industry officially taking its part in the finance industry. Moreover, there are more types of future goods ready to be open to the public in the next half year. Stock-index future goods, interest future goods, metal future goods as well as coke future goods are under strict research. A large scale of capacity increase is triggered with the increase of future gold exchange turnover. Under the circumstance of a great initiative of of future goods market, an increase in future gold exchange turnover is likely to improve the gold exchange scale. After Shanghai Future Gold Exchange Centre promoted several future gold exchange types, future gold price is still increasing dramatically. The accumulated turnover in the previous half year reached 572 tons, marked a 33% increase compared with the same period in the last year.

 

在黄金投资火热的背后，是大部分新入市投资者盲目的热情，由于对黄金投资缺乏了解，很多投资者入市即被套，而且很多黄金交易品种具备保证金放大效应，和在股市投资相比，投资者炒作保证金放大品种进行投资，往往需要面对高额风险，这种风险可以使投资者在股市中一年时间遭受的损失在一天内就提现出来，现在国内黄金市场主要分为实物黄金市场、纸黄金市场、黄金现货、黄金期货市场，其中国际黄金现货市场由于存在高度放大机制，如果投资者选择具备高度放大的保证金交易商，经常会出现一天内就会血本无归的情况，当然，这是极端的情况，黄金市场中，风险最小的是实物黄金，例如黄金纪念金银币、实物金条、金砖，实物黄金投资在中东部地区大中城市比较流行。除了风险收益不同，交易方向、交易渠道都是这些黄金投资品种的区别，面对诸多投资渠道，怎样选择就成为投资者需要面临的问题，根据虹吸理论，投资者一定要对投资方向进行全面的了解，选择自己熟悉的品种进行投资。在熟悉黄金产品的基础上，本文将介绍虹吸在黄金投资中的应用。

 

With a background of heated gold investment, most new passionate investors came into the market without simply understanding the gold investment. This made many investors lost their capital when first stepped into the market. In addition, many gold exchange types are specialized in enlarging guarantee sum. Compared with investment in stock market, investors who invested in types characterized in enlarging guarantee sum would likely to face more risks and challenges. Those risks could enlarge investors’ one-year loss in stock market to one-day loss in gold market. Nowadays, Chinese gold market can be differentiated into material gold market, paper gold market, in-stock gold and future gold market. Because of the enlarging system in international gold market, investors may lose to the bottom in one day if he or she chose a guarantee sum dealer with an highly enlarging system. Of course, this is an ultimate example. In gold market, the type with the least risk is material gold, such as gold memorative silver coin, material piece of gold and gold brick. Material gold investment enjoyed its popularity among middle or large cities located in the middle and eastern part of China. Except for different risks and benefit, exchange direction and channels set those gold exchange types different from each other. With so many investment channels, how to select a better one is one problem investors must face. According to syphonage theory, investors have to fully understand the investment direction and choose an invested type that one’s most familiar with. On a basis of fully understanding gold products, the passage will introduce the influence of syphonage theory application to gold investment.

 

黄金投资分析和众多商品价格走势分析相同，主要分为基本面分析和技术分析，黄金的基本面分析主要侧重对政治经济的运行分析，突发事件也会对黄金价格走势产生中期影响，传统经济理论由于在近年来过度注重现时经济数据，对未来经济走向的前瞻性严重缺乏，应对经济危机的冲击能力显然不足，相对而言，虹吸理论显然具备明显的前瞻性优势，近期根据虹吸理论做出的国际经济建议，受到全球主要经济体的采纳，并引发了国际媒体轰动，显然，能够战胜50多个国家经济领域反对派，虹吸理论的优势还是非常明显的。

 

Gold investment analysis is the same as many commodity price situation analysis, which can be dividied into basic analysis and technical analysis. Gold basic analysis mainly focuses on political situation and economic situation. Sudden attack can affect gold price situation in the middle term. Traditional economic theory focuses too much on current ecnomic data in recent years, so it’s short-sighted in future economic situation which lacked in crisis response ability. Comparably, syphonage theory is obviously more far-sighted than traditional theory. International economic advice made by syphonage theory is generally approved and used by main ecnomic bodies in the world and caused great shock among international media. Obviously, syphonage theory’s ability to gain approval among more than 50 opposing national parties proved its obvious advantage.

 

传统经济理论在近10年来，这种前瞻性不足开始大量显现，全球自97年亚洲金融危机开始，热钱在洲际间大规模流动造成了严重危害，2007年开始的美国房地产次级债危机，再次显现出传统经济理论的缺陷，即只顾现时经济增长，无法应对潜伏的危机，在经济政策制定方面都无暇自顾，更谈不到对前瞻性的把握，很显然，前瞻性不足是传统经济理论发展的障碍，如果用传统经济理论进行黄金投资的宏观分析，显然不能保证黄金投资的有效性。

 

In recent 10 years, the case of traditional ecnomic theory’s vision lack began to increase in numbers. Hot money’s large intercontinental flow caused severe damage since the Asian financial crisis in 1997. The beginning of American real estate sub-credit crisis in 2007 demonstrated the disadvantage of economic principles, that is, catering to only current ecnomic growth without simple response system to intial crisis. Ecnomic principle makers failed to cater to the problem, let alone failure to give attention to future economic situation. It’s obvious that traditional ecnomic growth theory’s lack of vision is one obstacle that hampers its development. It’s conspicuous that analysis with only the help of traditional ecnomic theory cannot ensure the effectiveness of gold investment.

 

虹吸理论在实际应用中的优势，还可以通过一些成功研究显现出来，比如美联储08年一季度采取的应急性加息，这对宏观经济运行的伤害非常显著，但在此2个月前，根据虹吸理论于2007年撰写的一篇《黄金市场回顾与展望》中就有对美联储降息的要求，这显然是虹吸理论对美联储经济学派的优势，这种优势的根源就在于虹吸理论对宏观经济运行的前瞻性，

 

Syphonage theory’s application advantage can be demonstrated by some successful researches, for example, The Federal Reserve’s measure of interest increase to cater to the sudden situation in the first quarter of 2008 caused obvious damage to macro-ecnomic situation. But 2 months before that, A passage named “Retrospect and Expectations to Gold Market” in 2007 required Federal Reserve to decrease interest according to syphonage theory, which demonstrated syphonage theory’s advantage rooted in the far-sightedness toward macro-economic situation.

 

虹吸理论构思源自虹吸现象，即物理课学过的连通器原理，如图A、Ｂ所示，虹吸现象，是利用液态分子间引力与位差能量实现的物理现象，虹吸理论以虹吸现象图形为例，形象的描述未来资金终值和现值之间的资金流动方式，如上图A、B中，两个图形资金流均是向下流动，都在向横盘区域注入资金，所以左侧的价格走势是向上，右侧价格走势向下。在图A中，因为右侧向左侧低谷（虚线处）注入资金，左侧的虚线价位会升高，但左侧因为已经成为历史，价格不会变动，体现在图C中，就是价格在横盘后持续走高；或者把左侧想象成划船，右侧是冲浪，因为商品价格是向右侧走的，随着资金流的不断向左侧贴息，价格就抬高，相反的，在图B和D中，由于虹吸资金流的持续流出，价格下跌就形成了有价物价格的下跌。其中，图A和C表示的图形我们成为正向虹吸图形，B和D代表的图形成为反向虹吸理论图形，这种正向虹吸图形和反向虹吸图形分别可以简单代表两种相反的投机机会，在正常情况下，商品的这种虹吸资金流从远期看会表现出缓慢的上升走势，但在中短期，走势经常受到供求关系影响，特别在保证金交易的品种中，即使是价格操纵的市场中，供求关系也是影响商品价格的主要因素，这种以供求关系为主导的市场中，虹吸终值并不是一成不变的，在外在影响因素发生变化时，商品终值也会相应变化，有时甚至会改变到和预期截然相反的方向，这就需要我们经常对相关影响因素进行跟踪和研究，这种研究并不象蝴蝶理论分析的微小变动因素，虹吸理论认为只要连续跟踪超过一定权重，比如10％影响权重的因素，并持续研究，及时将超过10％影响因素事件纳入调查范围，既可完成对商品价格分析的全面性探索。

 

Syphonage theory comes from syphonage phenomenon that is the connecting vessels theory in physics. As demonstrated in Picture A or B, syphonage phenomenon is a physical phenomenon caused by liquid molecule and position displacement power. Syphonage theory is characterized by syphonage phenomenon illustration and depicts the flowing way between future ultimate capital and current value. As illustrated in Picture A or B, both capital flow is decreasing to lateral area. So price situation on the left is up going, while price situation on the right is downsizing. In the Picture A, because price on the right is investing capital into the left bottom (located at the dotted line), the dotted price on the left will increase. However because price on the left has become history, the price cannot alter any more. As illustrated in Picture C, that equals to the increase in price after lateral trend; or the left part could be imagined as boat paddle, while the right part is surfing. Because the commodity price on the left part is running to the right part. So with the capital flow granting the left part interest discount, the price would go up. On the other hand, as illustrated in Picture B and D, the price drop would become material objects’ price drop because of the continuous flow syphonage capital. Pictures stood by Picture B and D can become anti-syphonage theory pictures. The syphonage pictures and anti-syphonage pictures can simply stand for two converse investment opportunities. Under normal situations, commodity’s syphonage capital flow can demonstrate a slow increasing situation in the long run. But the situation is usually affected by supply-and-demand situation in the middle and short run. Especially in the type of gurantee sum exchange, the supply-and-demand situation is a major factor affecting commodity price even in a price dominated market. The commodity’s ultimate price will comparatively alter when the outer influence changes, and sometimes the price may change to a completely converse direction as expected. In case of the above case, we need to observe and research the influential factors. However the research is not like the Butterfly Theory research on slight variables. Syphonage theory deems that if continuous observance extends more than a certain percentage, such as 10% influential factor, and we continue researching, immediately putting 10% influential factors into research scale, we could finish the all-round research on commodity price analysis.

 

但有时基本面分析会失效，虹吸理论注重以基本面分析为主，辅之以技术分析方法相结合的投资分析方法以追求投资的高效性，比如基本面分析有时很难做到尽善尽美，很多需要基本面分析研究的资料无法取得，这就需要技术分析解决，技术分析是得出实际投资者的投资状况的有效途经，比如价格操纵，虹吸理论认为基本面分析在价格操纵中是有效的，但也有缺陷，比如利用内幕消息进行价格操纵获利，因为应对内幕消息是以详尽调查为基础，脱离了详尽调查，这种理论就是无效的，技术分析就能解决这一点，通过价格持仓量的异常波动等一系列技术分析方法都可以得到明确的对冲资金活动的信号，虹吸理论对与短期波动的解释为：各种影响短期价格走势的因素，结合起来形成一个短期终值，在外界因素不变的情况下，就形成了短期商品价格的涨跌，时间长短不是最重要的，重要的是对影响因素的充分研究，如果终值是固定的，时间缩短，表现在价格走势上就是暴涨暴跌。

 

But sometimes basic analysis can be of no use. Syphonage theory focuses on basic analysis, accompanied by technical analysis. The method is aimed at investment effectiveness. But basic analysis can hardly be perfect sometimes. Many materials used for basic analysis can hardly get. One needs to use technical analysis to solve the problem. Technical analysis is an effective way for actual investors to draw an investment conclusion. For example, in terms of price control, syphonage theory deems that basic analysis proved to be effective in price control. But some disadvantages existed, such as gaining profits by the use of inside messages. Because the application of inside messages is on a basis of detailed research, it could be ineffective without the detailed research. But technical analysis can solve the problem. One could easily get an accurate capital flow signal by share holders’ irregular flow as well as a series of technical analysis methods. Syphonage theory’s explanation toward short-term flow can be understood as: different short-term price situation can be combined to a short-term ultimate sum. Without the change of outer influential factors, it may contribute to the short-term price situation. The time term is not of ultimate importance. Enough research is of significant importance. If the ultimate sum is fixed, time is shorter than usual, the price will demonstrate a great increase or a great drop situation.

具体到黄金市场中，在正常情况下，黄金具有昂贵,容易分割,便于收藏和流通等属性,便于执行货币的职能，和现在普遍流通的纸质货币不同，黄金属于世界货币，这就造成根据虹吸理论对黄金价格分析具有较高的准确性，黄金投资分析需要的资料是全世界政府研究都需要的资料，当然也有对价格操纵以及内幕消息，这就需要技术面和基本面相结合，虹吸理论认为技术面分析可以解决基本面对于利用内幕消息进行盈利群体，导致的基本面分析失效的局面，比如一个国家利用制造紧张关系影响商品价格进行风险投资盈利，这在金融信息化高度发达的现代社会是完全可能的，国际经济一体化已经形成了可以容纳国家财富的规模市场，如果利用内幕消息套利，在基本面有时非常难以判断，技术面就解决了这种不足，技术分析不是万能的，但没有技术分析的独立基本面分析显然无法规避许多未知事件。例如，一个军事争端地区决定进行和谈，如果这对国际社会稳定起到重要作用，同时国际黄金市场足够容纳这个国家的大笔对冲资金，该地区国家完全有可能利用黄金市场进行风险放大交易牟利，如果单从基本面分析，很难把握该事件的进展情况，但如果从技术面分析，则可以从相关市场数据得出正确的判断。

 

In a case gold market, under normal circumstances, gold is specialized in easy divided, easy collected and currency flowing characters, which can help to carry out its currency function. Being different from normal paper-made currencies, gold belongs to world currency, which results in a high accuracy of syphonage theory over gold price analysis. Materials required in gold investment analysis are shared materials used for government researches worldwide, including price control and inside messages. This requires a combination of both basic analysis and technical analysis. Syphonage theory deems technical analysis could solve the problem of basic analysis’ ineffectiveness caused by the use of inside messages to achieve group benefits. For example, it’s possible for a country to affect commodity price for the sake of risk benefits by the use of causing dangerous international relationship in this highly developed modern world. The unity of international economy has become a large market with a capacity of containing national wealth. Basic analysis can hardly decide if one gains profits with the use of inside messages. However, technical analysis can make up for the disadvantage. Technical analysis is not omnipresent. But independent basic analysis without technical analysis cannot sidestep many unknown incidents. For example, a peace talk in a military area can cause the local country enlarge its profits by the use of enlarging risks in gold market, if the peace talk is of utmost significance to international stability and meanwhile the international gold market has the capacity of containing large sum of capitals from the country. One could hardly know the incidents’ development with only the basic analysis. However, technical analysis could endow one the power of judgment according to relative market data.

 

在实际运用中，虹吸理论对各种实际投资品种投资有不同的认识，对纸黄金和实物黄金投资的理解为，长期持有将获得可靠的收益，由于黄金储量有限，而不断的加工使用和新需求增加，则会使包括黄金矿产储备在内的实际需求缺口增加，同时，有限的资源消耗会带动黄金价格上扬。

 

In application, syphonage theory holds different understandings on different material investment types. Syphonage theory can be understood as long-term holder can get stable profit. Thanks to a limited gold reserve, continuous refine and use could add up to its demand, which can accelerate the increase in gold demand gap, including gold-mining reserve. Meanwhile limited resource consumption could bring up the gold price.

 

虹吸理论对黄金保证金交易有三个方面的理解：第一、风险投资。第二、黄金产品套利。第三、黄金产品套期保值。

 

Syphonage theory has three aspects of understanding toward the gold guarantee sum exchange: First, risk investment. Second, gaining profits by gold products. Third, value guarantee by holding long-term gold products.

 

风险投资者通过放大的杠杆效应，完全接纳了套利套期者规避的风险，同时获得风险收益补偿，在经历了严格全面的虹吸理论关注的综合因素分析后，投资者完全有机会从中获利，这和传统理论有一定出入，传统理论认为投机市场没有盈利价值，实际上真正的投机价值源自科学的探索，亏损的投机者等于向经过科学探索的投机者交纳学费，得到经验教训同时也为科学的发展做出贡献。

 

Risk investors completely carry on the risks sidestepped by profit gainers and long-term holders by an enlarged lever effect, while gaining compensation from the risks. After experiencing an all-round strict syphonage theory concentration analysis, it’s definitely possible for investors to gain profits from the analysis. This is different from traditional theory, which deems there’s no profit value for the market opportunists. In effect, real opportunists’ value originates from scientific discovery. That equals to loser paid tuition fee to scientific researchers. Losers contribute to the scientific development while accumulating experiences.

 

套利一般指期货市场上的参与者，利用不同月份、市场、商品之间的价差，同时买入和卖出两张相近的期货合约，或者是在现货合约和期货合约之间进行操作，以期从中获取风险收益的交易行为。它可以看作是期货套保和投机的中间方式，这种风险投资发展了期货交易的内容，使期货投机从期货合约绝对价格的水平变化转向相对价格的水平变化，拓展了盈利的渠道。

 

Gaining profit generally means future goods participant expect to gain profits by taking advantages of the price difference between different months, markets and commodities, or by operating between in-stock contract and future goods contract. It could be regarded as a middle way of long-term future goods and opportunitists. The risk investment developed the content of future goods exchange, making future goods contract change from ultimate price change to comparative price change, enlarging the scale of profit gaining.

 

套利交易者的风险程度处于套保和风险投机风险之间，探索者通过信息的不对称性和科学缜密的分析发现套利空间。实际运作时应主意国家黄金财政政策限制了某些类型套利获利空间，以在上海期货交易所套利为例，投资者在2008年1月9日上海黄金期货0806合约上市首日，利用和上海黄金交易所黄金现货价格22元/克的价差进行套利，除去财政扣减1.665元/克、开仓冻结资金利损2％、各项佣金手续费1.2元/克,如黄金期货上市首日套利为例，九五金和黄金期货0806品种在上海进行期现套利时，只有当实际期货价格小于上图期现套利示意图金色区域时，套利者才有机会获利，例如投资者确定未来期货价格到期时，实际价格波动范围在一定区间内，同时该区间波动幅度不会超出图中金色范围，则投资风险会大幅减小，虹吸理论认为投资者应尽量选取能创造较大范围金色区间，并且套利目标波动距离远离风险边界的套利组合进行套利，很多时候套利交易在有些国家黄金交易制度等因素影响下，并不能获得传说中无限的利润空间，这决非危然耸听，套利交易的结果等于是缩小了风险投机者的风险收益杠杆比例，在实际套利过程中，投资者应选择合适的品种进行操作。

 

Profit gainers’ risk lies between long-term guarantee sum and risk opportunists. Researching investors discovered profit gaining capacity by uncomparativity and strict scientific analysis. Take gaining profit at Shanghai Future Goods Exchange Centre for example, investors gained profit from in-stock gold price at 22 Yuan/g on January 9^th 2008 the first day of Shanghai 0806 contract future gold went on the market. Except financial dect 1.665 Yuan/g, 2% of open interest freeze consumption, different commissions 1.2 Yuan/g, investors could have opportunities of gaining profits only when material future goods price is less than the golden area illustrated in the above pictures on the first open day on the market. If investors could make sure future goods price expiration and the actual price shock is limited in a scale while the scale shock is limited in the golden area, the investment risks will greatly decrease. Syphonage theory deems that if investors could select a golden area whose shock scale is limited in the golden area and select a package whose profit aim shocks stay far from risk boundary. In most cases, to say that profit gaining exchange cannot get infinite profits as expected is not an exaggeration, due to different national gold exchange system. The result of profit gaining exchange is to limit the lever percentage of risk investors. In actual profit gaining process, investors should choose suitable type to operate.

套期保值是黄金保证金市场重要的经济功能，套保提供了黄金价格波动风险的防范机制，套保企业利用期货市场提供的未来价格，对冲现货市场中价格的反向运动风险，和期现套利不同，套期保值企业有实际的供需需求，即需要将来买进或卖出商品进行相关的生产加工或者出售。基本做法就是，买进或卖出与现货市场交易数量相当、交易方向相反的商品期货合约，以期在未来某一时间通过卖出或买进相同的期货合约，对冲平仓，结清期货头寸带来的盈利或亏损，以此补偿或抵消现货市场价格变动所带来的实际价格风险，使交易者的未来供需价格稳定在一定的水平。

 

Long-term value guarantee is an important economic function in guarantee sum gold function. Long-term value guarantee provides a security system against the risk of gold price shock. Long-term value guarantee enterprises go against price converse movement in in-stock market by the help of the future price provided by future goods market. Being different from gaining profit from future cash, long-term value guarantee enterprise holds actual supply-and-demand need, that is relative refining and sales required by future purchase or sale. Basically speaking, those enteprises would purchase future commodity contract with the same quantity and exchange direction in a future period, and use the contract to go against sales, a clearance of profit and loss brought by future goods. In this way, those enterprises could compensate or canceal the actual price risk caused by the change of in-stock goods in in-stock goods market, keeping exchangers’ supply-and-demand price move on a stable level.

 

由于黄金投资受黄金价格实际波动影响，以上套利套保方案并不是一成不变的，套保方案可以转换为套利方案，甚至投机方案，这需要根据虹吸理论研究国际金价运行情况，根据实际情况进行转换，虹吸理论判断金价主要根据国际政治经济以及技术分析进行判断，在经济研判方面，虹吸理论突破了传统经济理论主要分析现状的特型，更加侧重根据未来国民经济预期制定经济政策，以对抗和防范潜在风险或已知风险扩大为出发点，在保证现有经济成果、锁定经济风险同时，争取经济利益最大化，这和期货市场生产企业锁定经济成本的原理类似，虹吸理论在对待有前期积累的经济波动特别有效，因为有效规避了经济波动可能造成的危害，在宏观经济运行最重要的季度时间区间内，理论表现出显著超越其他理论的优势。在宏观研究领域，虹吸理论除了上面提到的成功呼吁美联储数次利率政策外，在亚洲亦出现很多追随者，4月份虹吸理论认为亚洲应保持利率不变，发出呼吁后一个月时间内，全部48个亚洲国家在根据虹吸理论呼吁保持了罕见的高度协同性，这使虹吸理论完善和升华得到广阔的发展空间。在6月末美联储再度保持利率不变，这和根据虹吸理论做出的呼吁保持一致，在取得一系列实质性成功后，虹吸理论有望在不断完善中继续推动前瞻性经济理论的发展。

 

The above profit gaining or value guarantee solution is not fixed because gold investment is affected by the actual gold price shock. Value guarantee solution can be changed into profit gaining profit gaining solution, or even opportunists solution. The change should be decided according to syphonage theory on international gold price movement situation and the actual situation. Syphonage theory’s decision on gold price focuses mainly on international political economic situation and technical analysis. In terms of ecnomic research, syphonage theory broke the traditional economic theory on current situation analysis characteristic, paid more attention on future GDP expectation and relative economic principles. Aiming at fighting against and intial crisis or larger known risks and precaution, ensuring economic growth and controlling risks, the theory also thrives to maximum economic profits. This is similar as some future goods enterprises fixing economic cost. Syphonage theory proved to be extremely effective to the economic shock accumulated in the first period, because it could sidestep the possible damage caused by economic shock. During the most important quarter for the macro-economic development, the theory demonstrated obvious advantage over other theories. In terms of macro research field, except for successfully persuading Federal Reserve to decrease interests several times, the theory also gained many followers in Asia. In April, syphonage theory deemed Asia should keep its stable interest rate. Within one month later than the appeal announcement, 48 Asian countries kept an unprecedented unity in accordance with the announcement. This improved the syphonage theory to a new height. At the end of June, Federal Reserved declared a stable interest rate again, which is in compliance with the appeal announcement of syphonage theory. After gaining a series of actual success, syphonage theory is expected to boost the development of visionary economic theory.

虹吸理论在国际政治格局方面的分析，基于对未来价格影响因素的全面准确研判，在一些方面取得一些成绩，比如在国际环境变化，一些大国对待国际争端的处理方式，国际金价运行受到的影响因素远超过简单的股票或者普通商品分析，只有经过周密的分析，才能做出准确的判断，如前面文中提到2007年底根据虹吸理论撰写的一篇文章《黄金市场2007年回顾与展望》，对2008年黄金价格将在1000美元/盎司下方区间震荡的研判，就获得了市场的认可，今年3月17日，国际金价大幅飙升至1000美元附近后迅速回落，成功对虹吸理论的研判进行了有效验证，虹吸理论显然在这次黄金投资分析应用中起到了重要的前瞻性提升作用。

 

Syphonage analysis on international political situation is based on accurate expectation on influential factors over future price and made some achievement on some aspects. For example, in terms of international circumstances, international gold price is affected larger than simple stock or regular commodity analysis because the responsing way used by some bigger countries to international disputes. It’s only by strict analysis, could one draw out accurate conclusion. As mentioned in “Retrospect and Expectations on Gold Market in 2007” on syphonage theory, the gold price in 2008 would move under $1000/yonce. The conclusion gained approval from market. On March 17^th, international gold price dropped rapidly after increasing to near $1000. the syphonage theory conclusion gained significant approval and the incident obviously improved the vision of syphonage theory.