中国明年有望成为世界第三大药品市场
http://www.linkmall.cn 2010-10-30 联街网
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联街网讯：在今天（29日）举行的第22届全国医药经济信息发布会上，国家食品药品监督管理局南方医药经济研究所（下称“南方所”）公布“2011年中国医药经济预测”，该所所长林建宁表示，中国药品市场在全球举足轻重，明年有望达到9388亿元的规模，占到全球药品市场15%的市场份额，跻身全球第三大药品市场的地位。
林建宁指出，2010年中国的药品市场规模将达到7556亿元，同比增长22%；2010年中国医药工业总产值将达到12560亿元，同比增长25%。
根南方所最新预测，2011年中国医药市场的增长将高达24%，达到9388亿元的规模；中国医药工业总产值的增长将保持23%的增幅，达到15450亿元的规模。
而上述预测数据所设定的前提是：中国GDP保持平稳增长，增幅在8%以上；新医改政策按既定进度有序推进；全球经济不出现二次探底。
林建宁分别从宏观经济层面、需求层面、政策层面以及资本层面四大角度分析了明年中国医药经济的走势。
首先，从宏观经济层面来看，林建宁认为，明年宏观经济层面对医药构成利好：从全球看，全球经济二次探底的可能性不大，预计明年增长幅度为4.2%，估计明年全球经济会复苏，有利于中国医药经济的发展。
从国内看，中国的GDP保持稳定增长，财政收入增加，医疗卫生投入还会继续加大，对中国医药经济发展形成有利的大环境。
“但是宏观经济层面也有两个隐忧，一是人民币升值有可能会给中国的医药出口造成困难，尤其是会对以原料药为主的出口结构造成冲击；二是CPI过高，有可能会造成宏观经济政策的调整，从而波及医药经济的增长。”
其次是需求层面，这亦是拉动医药市场增长的最核心因素，林建宁分析认为，医药行业的需求呈刚性且为长期因素，而中国医药市场近期的主要需求因素有三：人口结构老龄化，慢性病治疗费用的上升，医保支付能力的提高。
以慢性病的治疗需求为例，中国的慢性病治疗负担比较高，慢性病其医疗费用占到总医疗费用的60%以上，而世界卫生组织计算的全球平均水平仅为40%多。“因为中国原来的大部分农村地区医疗条件不好，缺医少药，农民没有医疗保险，没有定期体检，所以一旦发现慢性病，其治疗成本就会比较高。这一轮新的医改‘全民医保’的目标实现之后，会使慢性病的需求得到满足。”林建宁分析说。
而在政策层面，林建宁则提醒业界明年要特别关注几个政策的变化：一是医保支付政策的变化，“医保的支付手段未来将呈现大病种按病种统筹、门诊按人头统筹的特点（即住院按病种付费，门诊按人头统筹）。医保支付政策的改变会带来疾病治疗方案、处方结构的改变，医院会主动调整治疗方法和用药结构，企业要加强对药物经济学的研究。”二是药价政策的变化，新的药价政策有可能在明年出台，“如果国家发改委欲在全国推广药价‘三控’政策，那么对医药市场的格局冲击就比较大，不仅会直接冲击企业的营销行为，也会影响零售药店的利润空间。”
另外值得医药业界关注的是明年基本药物政策可能会调整和出台新版GMP，这都将会对医药行业产生重大影响。
最后是资本层面的因素，林建宁认为，今年医药行业在资本在医药市场兴风作浪，医药行业今年新增资金很多，而明年随着生物医药的“十二五”和新医改诸项政策的落实，医药行业的高增长会引发资本市场对医药行业更高的关注度，从而加大投资医药的力度。
此外，不仅看好明年中国药品市场，南方所还预测未来十年中国药品市场将继续不断壮大，未来十年复合年增长率为20%，到2019年将达到40188亿元，届时中国将成为全球第二大药品市场。
来源：一财网 李溯婉 责编：寄瑶
Next year China is expected to become the world's third largest pharmaceutical market
Union Street Network http://www.linkmall.cn 2010-10-30
Union Street Network News: Today (29) at the 22nd session of the national medical conference on economic information, the State Food and Drug Administration, Southern Medical Economic Institute (hereinafter referred to as "South by") published "China's pharmaceutical economy in 2011 forecast, "said the director Lin Jianning, important in the global pharmaceutical market in China next year, the scale is expected to reach 938.8 billion yuan, accounting for 15% of the global pharmaceutical market, market share, among the world's third largest pharmaceutical market.
Lin Jianning pointed out that China's pharmaceutical market in 2010 will reach 755.6 billion yuan, an increase of 22%; 2010, China's pharmaceutical industry output will reach 1.256 trillion yuan, an increase of 25%.
The latest forecast for Southern roots in 2011, the growth of pharmaceutical market in China will reach 24%, reaching 938.8 billion yuan of the scale; the growth of industrial output value of Chinese medicine will remain 23% increase, reaching 1.545 trillion yuan in the scale.
And the forecast data set on the premise that: China to maintain steady GDP growth rate above 8%; new health care reform progress in an orderly manner in accordance with established policies; the global economy is not the second bottom.
Lin Jianning respectively, from the macroeconomic level, demand level, policy level and the level of capital next year, four Chinese medicine point of view of economic trends.
First, from a macroeconomic perspective, Lin Jianning that next year the pharmaceutical composition favorable macroeconomic level: from a global perspective, the global economy is unlikely that the second bottom, is expected to increase 4.2% next year, estimated the global economy next year recovery, is conducive to the economic development of Chinese medicine.
Domestically, China's GDP to maintain steady growth, financial income, medical health will continue to increase, the formation of economic development of China's Pharmaceutical enabling environment.
"But the macroeconomic level, there are two worries, one possible appreciation of the renminbi would create difficulties for China's pharmaceutical exports, especially to bulk drugs will mainly impact the export structure; Second, CPI is too high, it may cause macroeconomic policy adjustments, which affect economic growth medicine. "
Second is the demand level, it is also driven pharmaceutical market growth in the most core elements, Lin Jianning analysis, the pharmaceutical industry's demand was rigid and long-term factors, and the Chinese pharmaceutical market near the main demand of three factors: population aging, chronic disease treatment rise in the cost of capacity to pay increased health insurance.
The demand for treatment of chronic diseases for example, China's relatively high burden of chronic disease treatment, chronic diseases account for the total medical costs of their medical expenses more than 60%, while the World Health Organization calculated the global average is only 40% more. "Because most of China's rural areas had poor medical conditions, lack of medical care, the farmers have no medical insurance, no regular medical examinations, so once that chronic diseases, their treatment costs will be higher. This is a new medical reform 'referendum health insurance 'to achieve the objective, the cause of chronic diseases needs are met. "Lin Jianning analysis said.
In the policy level, Lin Jianning is to alert the industry next year, with special attention to several policy changes: First, Medicare payment policy changes, "Medicare's payment methods will show a more serious kind of future disease by co-ordination, co-ordination of patient characteristics according to the head (ie, DRGs by hospital, clinic according to the head co-ordination). Medicare payment policy changes will lead to disease treatments, prescription structural change, the hospitals will take the initiative to adjust the structure of treatment and medication, enterprises should strengthen the economics of the drug. "Second, drug price policy changes, the new drug price policy may be introduced next year," National Development and Reform Commission if drug prices across the country want to 'Three Controls' policy, then the impact on the pattern of the pharmaceutical market is relatively large, not only will have a direct impact on enterprise marketing behavior, also affect the profit margins of retail pharmacies. "
Also of concern is the pharmaceutical industry's essential medicines policy next year may be adjusted and the introduction of new GMP, which will have a significant impact on the pharmaceutical industry.
Finally, considerations of capital, Lin Jianning that this year the pharmaceutical industry have stirred up trouble in the capital in the pharmaceutical market, the pharmaceutical industry a lot of new money this year, and next year as the bio-medicine "Twelve Five" and the various items of new health care reform implementation of the policy, medicine high growth industries of the capital market will lead to a higher degree of concern the pharmaceutical industry, thereby increasing the intensity of investment in medicine.
Moreover, not only optimistic about next year, the Chinese pharmaceutical market, also predicted the next ten years the south of the Chinese pharmaceutical market will continue to grow over the next decade at a CAGR of 20%, to reach 4.0188 trillion yuan in 2019, when China will become the world's first second largest pharmaceutical market.
Source: Lee Su-wan fiscal net Zebian: Send Yao