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南非艾滋病与中国计划生育
何亚福
8月16日《人民日报》刊登了一篇题为《寻找发展与人口增长平衡点(国际视野)》的报道，其中，在介绍南非的人口政策中提到：艾滋病对南非人口政策影响巨大。过去10年里南非艾滋病病毒感染者占总人口的比例一直呈上升趋势，目前艾滋病病毒携带者为524万，约占总人口的10.5%。死于艾滋病相关疾病的人数最近3年虽有所下降，但是每年死亡人数仍占全国总死亡人数的43%。此外，艾滋病还严重影响南非的人口结构，目前南非预计有艾滋孤儿199万，许多家庭只能由老人或未成年孩子当家。艾滋病成为南非人口、社会经济发展的沉重负担。
那么，南非艾滋病为何演变到今天如此严重的地步呢？姆贝基（1999-2008年任南非总统）对此负有不可推卸的责任。在2000年初，当艾滋病在南非蔓延时，姆贝基总统宣称，他不相信HIV是导致艾滋病的直接原因。他说，导致艾滋病的主要原因是贫穷和营养不良，而不是HIV。他还说，非洲必须走自己的路，寻求适合于非洲的治疗这种病的办法。然而，2000年7月出版的权威科学杂志《自然》刊登了一份由世界各国50多个组织的5000多名科学家联合签名的一份郑重声明，重申了他们一致支持的一个科学观点，那就是----艾滋病是由人体免疫缺损病毒即HIV引起的。以刊登科学论文著称的《自然》杂志刊登这样的声明还是第一次，而5000名科学家发表联合声明支持一个科学论点，这在医学史上也是第一次。
姆贝基总统拒绝承认HIV是导致艾滋病的直接原因，这样，他的观点就影响到南非的艾滋病防治工作。据2008年9月28日《南方周末》报道：姆贝基公开否认国内艾滋病病毒与艾滋病的联系，并质疑公认的科学结论，怀疑这个病毒是否是导致患病的因素。2003年，他表示“个人而言，我不知道有谁死于艾滋病”，这一年南非有37万人死于艾滋病。姆贝基带头抵制抗逆转录病毒的治疗，唯恐艾滋病是针对非洲人名誉的阴谋，是贪婪药厂赚钱的借口，他的健康部部长甚至提倡采用大蒜、柠檬、橄榄油、马铃薯的疗法医治艾滋病。批评家指出，姆贝基不肯妥协的态度导致了成千民众不必要的死亡。
南非的艾滋病与中国的计划生育颇有相似之处：其一，艾滋病是南非面临的最严重问题之一，而计划生育引起的人口结构恶化则是中国面临的最严重问题之一；其二，南非总统姆贝基否认HIV是导致艾滋病的病毒，而中国的计生委官员则否认计划生育导致人口结构恶化（加速老龄化和性别比失衡）。
先看老龄化。计生委官员声称：“中国进入老龄社会和中国的计划生育政策没有关系……20世纪末，中国和世界一样，都跨入了老龄化的门槛。20世纪末跨入这个门槛，那60岁以上的老人和计划生育有什么关系？没有任何关系，70年代初才推行计划生育。所以进入老龄化阶段的老龄化人口是经济发展、社会进步的必然结果。它并不是生育政策导致的。”然而，一个国家是否进入老龄化，不是看老人绝对数量的多少，而是看老人占总人口的比例。现在60岁以上的老人数量当然和计划生育没有什么关系，但现在老人数量占总人口的比例，却与计划生育直接相关，因为计划生育减少了小孩的数量，从而增大了老人的比例，加快了老龄化进程。
再看性别比失衡。自从上个世纪八十年代初以来，中国的出生婴儿性别比就开始攀升，现在的出生婴儿性别比大约为120，也就是说，每出生100个女婴，就出生大约120个男婴。计生委官员声称，造成性别比失衡的主要原因是重男轻女的传统观念，而不是计划生育政策。然而，如果没有计划生育，尽管仍然存在重男轻女的传统观念，但人们生男孩的愿望可以通过多生来实现，所以并不一定会出现性别比失衡这种现象。在中国的少数民族地区，出生婴儿性别比基本上在正常范围内，就是因为少数民族的生育政策比较宽松。
一个人如果患了病，那么首先就应该找到病因，然后才能对症下药。如果病人讳疾忌医，那么肯定治不好病。姆贝基总统的“讳疾忌医”，对南非艾滋病的蔓延负有不可推卸的责任；计生委官员的“讳疾忌医”，否认人口病的根源在于计划生育，拒绝放宽生育政策，使中国人口结构日益恶化，将来可能出现几亿老人老无所养、几千万光棍无妻可娶的严重后果。
South Africa AIDS and family planning in China
He Yafu
August 16 "People's Daily" published an article entitled "Finding a balance development and population growth (international perspective)," the report, which, in introducing South Africa's population policy is mentioned in: AIDS on the South African population policy effects. Over the past 10 years of HIV infection in South Africa the proportion of the total population has been rising, currently living with HIV is 5.24 million, accounting for 10.5% of the total population. The number of people died of AIDS-related illnesses last 3 years has dropped somewhat, but still the country's total annual number of deaths 43% of deaths. In addition, AIDS has seriously affected the population structure of South Africa, currently South Africa is expected to have 1.99 million AIDS orphans, many families can only be headed by the elderly or young children. AIDS is South Africa's population, the heavy burden of social and economic development.
So, why the evolution of AIDS in South Africa today so getting serious? Mbeki (President of South Africa 1999-2008 term) can not shirk this responsibility. In early 2000, when the spread of AIDS in South Africa when President Thabo Mbeki declared that he did not believe HIV is the leading direct cause of AIDS. He said the cause of AIDS because of poverty and malnutrition, not HIV. He also said that Africa must go its own way, to seek treatment for the disease in Africa way. However, in July 2000 published in the authoritative science magazine "Nature" published a more than 50 organizations from around the world more than 5,000 scientists signed a joint solemn declaration reaffirmed their unanimous support of a scientific point of view, that is, ---- AIDS is human immunodeficiency virus or HIV caused. Known published scientific papers to the "natural" magazine published the first time such a statement, the 5000 scientists issued a joint statement to support a scientific argument, this is the first time in medical history.
President Mbeki refused to acknowledge HIV is the leading direct cause of AIDS, so that his views on the impact of AIDS in South Africa. According to September 28, 2008, "Southern Weekend" reports: Mbeki openly denied that HIV and AIDS, domestic linkages, and to question the generally accepted scientific conclusions, whether the virus is suspected to cause disease factors. In 2003, he said, "Personally, I do not know anyone who died of AIDS", this year there are 37 million people died of AIDS in South Africa. Mbeki spearheaded the resistance to antiretroviral treatment, for fear that AIDS is a conspiracy against Africans reputation is the greedy pharmaceutical companies an excuse to make money, his health minister and even promoting the use of garlic, lemon, olive oil, potato cure for AIDS therapy . Critics point out that Mbeki would not compromise the public's attitude has led to thousands of unnecessary deaths.
South Africa AIDS and family planning in China is quite similar: first, AIDS is the most serious problems facing South Africa is one, and family planning, population structure caused by worsened while is one of the most serious problems facing; Second, South African President Thabo Mbeki denied that HIV is the virus that causes AIDS, and China's Family Planning Commission officials denied that the population structure of family planning leading to deterioration (accelerated aging and sex ratio imbalances).
Look at aging. Family Planning Commission officials claimed that: "an aging society in China and China's family planning policy does not matter ... ... the 20th century, China and the world as both entered the threshold of aging. 20th century into the thresholds, that people over the age of 60 What is the relationship and family planning? nothing, until the early 70s to implement family planning. so into the aging stage of the aging population, economic development, social progress, the inevitable result. it is not a result of fertility policy. "However, a State whether access to aging, not to see how much the absolute number of elderly people, but by the proportion of elderly population. Now the number of people over 60 years of age and family planning, of course, has nothing to do, but now the number of elderly proportion of the total population, but directly related to family planning, because family planning reduces the number of children, thereby increasing the proportion of elderly people, to speed up the aging process.
Look at sex ratio imbalance. Since the early eighties of last century, China's sex ratio at birth began to rise, the current sex ratio at birth is about 120, that is, for every 100 girls born, the baby was born about 120. Family Planning Commission officials said, resulting in sex ratio imbalance is mainly due to patriarchal tradition, rather than the family planning policy. However, if there is no family planning, although there are still patriarchal tradition, but it is a boy born with the desire can be achieved through multiple, so it was not certain that there are sex ratio imbalance phenomenon. Minority areas in China, sex ratio at birth is basically in the normal range, because more liberal childbirth policy for ethnic minorities.
If a person sick, then to first find the cause before they can prescribe the right medicine. If the doctors when sick, then certainly not cure disease. President Mbeki's "Chien", the spread of AIDS in South Africa inescapable responsibility; Family Planning Commission official, "Chien", denying the population the disease is rooted in family planning, refused to relax the fertility policy, so that China's population structure, deteriorating in the future may be hundreds of millions of the elderly are no one to fall, tens of millions of bachelor to marry without his wife's serious consequences.
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