余黄炎:北京首都机场与腾讯控股投资回报率比较研究


重资产行业投资回报率较低——北京首都机场与腾讯控股投资回报率比较研究
研究员:余黄炎

【内容摘要】

我们考察机场行业的3年以上的投资回报率。根据价值规律,在较长的时间里,股票价格往往能够反映公司的真实价值。因此,我们可以用3年以上的股价回报率来衡量一家公司的投资回报率。北京首都机场机场行业的代表性公司,它是一家典型的重资产业务公司,而在香港证券市场,腾讯控股是一家典型的轻资产业务公司。我们发现,这两家公司的投资回报率差距非常大。差距很大的重要原因,就是这两家公司分别从事典型的重资产业务和轻资产业务。

北京首都机场:典型的重资产业务公司 2009年末,北京首都机场总资产366.1亿元(人民币,下同),2009年收入49.7亿元,经常性净利润为2.9亿元,总资产周转率仅0.1倍,经常性净资产收益率仅2%。

北京首都机场2005年初以来6年的股价回报率为39% 2005年初,北京首都机场的复权后股价为2. 96港元,当前最新股价为4.10港元,2005年初以来6年的投资回报率为39%。

腾讯控股:典型的轻资产业务公司 2009年末,腾讯控股总资产175.1亿元(含115.5亿元现金和银行存款),2009年收入124.4亿元,经常性净利润为51.6亿元,总资产周转率(扣除现金和存款)为2.1倍,经常性净资产收益率高达54%。

腾讯控股2005年初以来6年的股价回报率为45.4倍 2005年初,北京首都机场的复权后股价为3.84港元,当前最新股价为174.40港元,2005年初以来6年的投资回报率为45.4倍。

重资产行业投资回报率较低 根据杜邦财务分析系统,一家公司的净资产收益率一方面跟公司的销售净利率有关,另一方面跟资产周转率有关。一个重资产业务公司,其资产周转率往往较低,从而导致其盈利能力和投资回报率较低。正如沃伦•巴菲特指出的,“通常,资产庞大的企业回报率低”,“大多数高回报率的公司需要相对小的资产”。

During Jan 2005-Jan 2011, Beijing Capital International Airport’s (BCIA) total share price return is only 39%. We believe BCIA operates heavy assets. Tencent Holdings (
700.HK), a software company which provides internet value-added services and telecom value-added services, has total share price return of 4540% during Jan 2005-Jan 2011. Tencent Holdings is a typical light-asset company. In this report, we try to study why the two companies have so different investment returns to their investors.

BCIA: a typical heavy-asset company. At the end of 2009, BCIA’s total assets were RMB 36,610 million. In 2009, BCIA’s revenue was RMB 4,970 million and recurrent net profit was RMB 290 million. Accordingly, BCIA’s total assets turnover was only 0.1x, and recurrent ROE was only 2%.

BCIA’s share price return is low. During Jan 2005-Jan 2011, BCIA’s total share price return is only 39%.

Tencent Holdings: a typical light-asset company. At the end of 2009, Tencent Holdings’ total assets were RMB 17,510 million (including huge cash). In 2009, Tencent Holdings’ revenue was RMB 12,400 million and recurrent net profit was RMB 5,160 million. Accordingly, Tencent Holdings’ total assets turnover was 2.1x, and recurrent ROE was as high as 54%.

Tencent Holdings’ share price return is very high. During Jan 2005-Jan 2011, Tencent Holdings total share price return is 4540%.

A heavy-asset company has low investment return for shareholders. According to System of Dupont Financial Analysis, the ROE of a company depends on the company’s net profit margin and total assets turnover. A heavy-asset company usually has low total assets turnover and then low ROE.


【摘要结束】