我知道现在在中国的互联网里“埃及”应该已经成了一个敏感词，真理部的担忧是有道理的，因为中国还远远没有到那个在这类运动面前能够独善其身的地步。

I know by now, the Chinese characters for Egypt should have become a "sensitive words" in the Chinese web-sphare and I think the propoganda department is doing their work for a right reason - China has not reached a point where such democratic demonstration don't ignite similar fire.

What I am amazed is that ever since 1989, despite all the hardships, atrocities and general discontent in the public, luckily for the ruling Communist Party, there has been no nation-wide large scale demonstrations capable of even remotely shackening the totalitarian regime.  An unemployed young man in Tunisia lighted himself on fire, which seems common nowadays in China, can serve as a detonator for such a massive social unrest through out the middle East is still beyond most Chinese people's imagination.  Every day in this wonderful land, tragedies of that Zhejiang village head's mythical traffic accedent death or people dosing themselves with Kerosene to protest the forced demonishing of their houses happening in hundreds, if not more.  Why all these events fail to provoke the 1989-style revolution?

The reason, I think, is fear.  The Party has rightly projected its unpopularity and the possibility of upheaval and hence to get prepared.  The millon strong armed police is nothing but to protect the Party's absolute grip on power.  Ever since 1989, the Party has been under fire from democratic governments across the world for mobolizing its military to crack down the peaceful demonstration.  So obviously calling in the 27th or 38th Army is out of the question in the future and they know the regular police force alone cannot stop such a nationwide event, establishing an Armed Plice force seems a briliant idea. And it is true, every mass demonstration in recent years has been put down by the AP as a last resort. 

The second reason is the rapid economic development which created the nation's first middle class population.  Middle class will never lead a revolution, but they are a key force for leading a smooth social transition.  China cannot afford an Egypt style revolution but cannot stay with the current social economic regime either, the best approach is to have the middle class lead a transition to full democracy.  I am still hopeful that this transition has started and will finish in people's favor, even though it will take a painfully long time to achieve a true democracy.