美债务远超GDP已成经济“艾滋病”


美债务远超GDP已成经济“艾滋病”

2011-6-30 10:51:39  文章来源:美国中文网  作者:佚名
关键词:美国债务 经济艾滋病
核心提示:美国个人、公司和政府总债务相当于GDP的350%。评论回顾历史上几个重要时期:1870年代(长期萧条),债务同GDB之比达到166%;1930年代(大萧条),债务同GDP之比达到300%;现在,债务同GDP之比为350%。
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    美国中文网报道:美国个人、公司和政府总债务相当于GDP的350%。有线电视新闻网(CNN)撰稿人凯因(Will Cain)说,这种债务比例正在扼杀美国经济。

  凯因发表评论说,最近每个月,我们都听到一系列坏数字:5月仅仅增加就业5.4万人;失业率高达9.1%,房价已经下滑33.1%等等。这些数字都是表症。如果继续把焦点放在这些数字上,就像艾滋病人医生总是看到病人出现损伤、肺炎、支气管炎。虽然那些病也能导致死亡,但是如果不把焦点放在病根上,他就永远无法康复。债务就是美国经济的艾滋病。美国债务的代表编号就是350(GDP的350%)。

评论说,我们花费很多时间谈论联邦政府债务。但是,美国的债务包括联邦政府债务,更重要则是公司和家庭债务。过去20年来,美国私人部分,包括消费者和公司,举债都达到历史新水平。

几乎所有社区都有大批人债台高筑,或者更确切的说多数都住在债务之中,因此不能消费。反过来,银行坐在坏债或者潜在的违约债务之上,要囤积资金。而公司没有兴趣聘用、投资或开支。因此,衰退、停滞、潜在的萧条。

评论回顾历史上几个重要时期:1870年代(长期萧条),债务同GDB之比达到166%;1930年代(大萧条),债务同GDP之比达到300%;现在,债务同GDP之比为350%。

去杠杆化,或者说消除债务,是经济前进所必须的。此外,美国没有别的选择。

2010年麦金赛研究发现,自从二次世界大战之后,每次金融危机之后都会出现长期去杠杆化--持续六年到七年。

没有简单的方式可以消除那些债务。美国可以印钞票,靠通胀降低债务,但那不会增加它的国际威望。

人们可以采取自由放任方式,允许大批违约,那可能把经济拖入萧条。人们也可能模糊过去,希望GDP超过信贷增长,但那需要很长时间。

无论如何,去杠杆化都是一个巨大的经济拖累。美国过去三年来已经将债务水平从370%降低到350%。但是,现在太多人都把目前的衰退看做正常衰退,每10年一次。但上述数字却说明它不是正常衰退,它是一个长期和困难的衰退。








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图示∶2011年5月正式出版的《中国特色医疗金鉴》登载的刘君主任及其机构事迹 
 
 

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http://china.huanqiu.com/hot/2010-12/1390550.html

 

 

U.S. debt far more than the GDP has become the economic "AIDS"
2011-6-30 10:51:39 Source: American Chinese network Author: Anonymous
Keywords: AIDS in the U.S. debt economy
Core Tip: U.S. individuals, corporations and total government debt is equivalent to 350% of GDP. Review comments on several important historical periods: the 1870s (long-term depression), the ratio of debt to GDB to 166%; the 1930s (Great Depression), debt to GDP ratio reached 300%; now, the debt to GDP ratio of 350 %.


    
American Chinese news report: U.S. individuals, corporations and total government debt is equivalent to 350% of GDP. Cable News Network (CNN) writer Cain (Will Cain) said, the proportion of this debt is strangling the U.S. economy.
Cain commented that the recent month, we heard a series of bad numbers: May increase employment only 5.4 million people; unemployment rate of 9.1%, prices have declined 33.1%, and so on. These figures are tables disease. If we continue to focus on these figures, like AIDS doctors always see the patient injury, pneumonia, bronchitis. Although these diseases can lead to death, but if you do not focus on the root cause, he will never recover. AIDS debt the U.S. economy. U.S. debt is the representative number 350 (GDP 350%).

Commented that we spend a lot of time talking about the federal government debt. However, the U.S. federal government debt, including debt, is more important is the corporate and household debt. Over the past 20 years, the U.S. private parts, including consumers and companies, debt has reached historic levels.

Almost all communities have large numbers of people deep in debt, or, more precisely, among the majority live in debt, it is not consumption. In turn, the banks bad debt, or sitting on a potential debt default, to hoard capital. The company is not interested in hiring, investment or expenditure. Therefore, recession, stagnation, potential depression.

Review comments on several important historical periods: the 1870s (long-term depression), the ratio of debt to GDB to 166%; the 1930s (Great Depression), debt to GDP ratio reached 300%; now, the debt to GDP ratio of 350 %.

Deleveraging, or the elimination of debt, is necessary for economic progress. In addition, the United States has no other choice.

2010 McKinsey study found that, since World War II, will appear each time after a long-term financial crisis, deleveraging - last six to seven years.

There is no simple way to eliminate debt. U.S. can print money, reduce debt by inflation, but that will not increase its international prestige.

It can take a laissez-faire approach, allowing a large number of defaults, it may be the economy into recession. It may also be blurred in the past, hoping GDP over credit growth, but it takes a long time.

In any case, the deleveraging is a huge economic drag. The United States over the past three years has reduced the debt level from 370% to 350%. However, many people now regard as normal the current recession recession every 10 years. However, these figures are that it is not a normal recession, it is a long and difficult recession.

 
 
 
 
 

[ 作者:佚名    转贴自:本站原创    点击数:196    更新时间:2011-7-1    文章录入:nnb ]