No Easy Way Out for China After 'Air Defense Zone' Ratchets Up Tensions

　　The ongoing row between China and Japan over a chain of islands in the East China Sea escalated sharply last week when Beijing declared an “air defense zone” over the disputed territory.

　　China demanded that all aircraft flying through the 600-miles-long zone to provide advance notice and warned that it would “identify, monitor, control, and react to” unidentified aircraft.

　　Three days later, the United States flew two B-52 bombers through the air defense zone uncontested. Japan followed up by sending F-15s and surveillance planes through the zone. Two Japanese commercial airlines have refused to comply, as well. South Korea and Taiwan also have flown aircraft through the zone.

　　If China's intention was to force Japan to the negotiating table over the island dispute, Beijing's plan appears to have backfired, says RAND's Scott Harold.

　　“It's not clear that they've done anything other than pick up a big heavy stone and drop it on their own foot,” he told Wall Street Journal Live.

　　Beijing's actions have “inflamed an underlying suspicion that everyone had: that China is going to work in grey zones, push the envelope and expand its territorial sovereignty claims with every opportunity it gets,” Harold told The Guardian.

　　This leaves China with limited options. Suddenly eliminating the air defense zones would risk losing both face and influence, Harold said during an interview on the John Batchelor Show.

　　But if China challenges Japanese aircraft moving through the zone, the result could be a “very serious situation.”

　　Last week, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel reaffirmed that the mutual defense treaty between the United States and Japan applies to the disputed islands.

　　“I don't know if there's an easy out here for China,” Harold told the Guardian. “The easy thing would be if they'd never done it in the first place.”

　　Harold suggested that China could reshape the zone so that it doesn't overlap the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands: “If China backs away from or redraws this air defense zone, it can do so without compromising its claim to the island,” he told Wall Street Journal Live.

　　The fallout from China's air defense zone could have the unintended side effect of improving relations between Japan and South Korea. Japan's national air defense zone currently covers a South Korean-controlled submerged rock called Ieodo. Tokyo could score diplomatic points by redrawing its air defense map to exclude the rock, which is is a “holy cause” for some Korean patriots.

　　“Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe [could] announce that the move was done out of respect for Korean sensitivities, calling [by its Korean name] Ieodo,” Harold says.

　　As Vice President Joe Biden visits the region on a trip that will be largely focused on the China-Japan feud, Washington is asking China not to establish a similar air defense zone in the South China Sea, where Beijing has territorial disputes with Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brueni.

　　— Tim McNellie

　　

　　Thoughts on China's New Air Defense Zone Policy

　　· by

　　· Scott Warren Harold

　　December 4, 2013

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　　In response to an inquiry from The Nelson Report, RAND's Scott Harold offered some thoughts on China's new air defense zone policy and how Japan and South Korea could be brought closer together by their respective responses.

　　Chinese President Xi Jinping is widely regarded as the most powerful leader one year into his term since Mao Zedong. The idea that a newly promoted batch of People's Liberation Army (PLA) generals would be freelancing the new air-defense-zone policy to push the China Military Commission (CMC) Chairman, President, and General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (who has a close alliance with much-feared Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CDIC) chieftain Wang Qishan) to act in ways that Xi might not want to do strikes me as unlikely.

　　Since the PRC's claimed air defense zone was announced last week, South Korea's English-language media have highlighted the perceived threat to the South Korean-controlled submerged rock of Ieodo in the East China Sea, talking up the need to extend the Korean air defense zone to cover it. Shifting to procure three more Aegis-enabled destroyers, Finance Minister Jeung-Hyun Yoon has made positive noises that Seoul appreciates Japan's patience and efforts to improve ties. And Seoul has announced interest in joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). From where I sit, the ROK response looks pretty strategic and broad-gauge.

　　One option for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe now might be to announce a slight redrawing of the Japanese air defense zone to put Ieodo outside of it, and to announce that the move was done out of respect for Korean sensitivities, calling Ieodo by that name (i.e., not Socotra or Suyanjiao). Japan might also reference its interest in scientific cooperation or exchanges on oceanographic data with the Korean research team that works on the research station the ROK built there in 2003. While not on par with the rocky outcrop known as Dokdo in South Korea (and Takeshima in Japan), Ieodo is also a “holy cause” for some Korean patriots, so this would be a major sign of respect.

　　Because Japan doesn't claim Ieodo (even though they are closer to it than China, and the Japanese air defense zone already covers it), this could be a big, zero-cost points-scorer for the Abe administration. In addition, Abe could welcome South Korea's expression of interest in the TPP and note that he hopes it can join the agreement at an early stage. This would effectively establish a Japan-Korea free trade agreement (FTA), counterbalancing China's quest to sign a PRC-ROK bilateral FTA to put pressure on Tokyo — a strategy that Chinese analysts at the University of International Business and Economics described in 2010 as a “divide-and-conquer strategy” to use against Japan.

　　One final thought: Abe may be able to engage his very diplomatically skilled wife, who has been at the forefront of friendly people-to-people outreach to both South Korea and China. Perhaps the arrival of new U.S. Ambassador Caroline Kennedy could provide some opportunity for Abe Akie to reach out to other prominent ambassadors, such as the ROK's Amb. Lee Byung-kee.

　　

　　

　　Scott Warren Harold

　　Biography

　　Scott Warren Harold is an associate political scientist at the RAND Corporation, where he specializes in Chinese foreign policy, East Asian security, and international affairs. Prior to joining RAND in August 2008, Harold worked at The Brookings Institution's John L. Thornton China Center from 2006-2008. His doctorate is in political science from Columbia University, where he wrote a thesis on China's foreign policy decisionmaking with respect to joining the World Trade Organization. In addition to his work at RAND, Harold is an adjunct professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, where he has taught since 2006. He has also taught Chinese politics at Columbia University. Harold is a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations from 2012 to 2017. He is fluent in Mandarin Chinese. His recent publications include China and Iran: Economic, Political, and Military Relations (with Alireza Nader); "Ieodo as Metaphor?: The Growing Importance of Sovereignty Disputes in South Korea-China Relations and the Role of the United States" (Asian Perspective, Vol. 36, no. 2); "Guest Editor's Introduction" (China Perspectives 2011, no. 4: Special Issue on The Modernization of the People's Liberation Army and Its Repercussions); and (with co-author Cheng Li) "China's New Military Elite," (Chinese Security, Winter 2007).

　　Research Focus

　　· Association Of Southeast Asian Nations;

　　· China;

　　· Defense Infrastructure;

　　· East Asia;

　　· Japan;

　　· Military Affairs;

　　· Singapore;

　　· South Korea;

　　· Taiwan;

　　· Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

　　Concurrent Non-RAND Positions

　　Adjunct Professor of Security Studies, Security Studies Program, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University

　　Recent Projects

　　· China and Iran: Economic, Political, and Military Relations

　　· China's Expanding Role in Global Mergers and Acquisitions Markets

　　· New Opportunities and Challenges for Taiwan's Security

　　Selected Publications

　　Scott W. Harold, "Ieodo as Metaphor?" Asian Perspective, 36(2), 2012

　　Scott W. Harold, ed., "Special Issue: The Modernization of the People's Liberation Army and Its Implications," China Perspectives, 4, 2011

　　Scott W. Harold, Cheng Li, "China's New Military Elite," China Security, 2007

　　

　　

　　Associate Political Scientist

　　Washington Office

　　Education

　　B.A. in international relations, Michigan State University; M.A., Ph.D. in political science, Columbia University