-帮你战胜自我，跑赢市场
郑磊 译
孔东民 审校
Chapter 1 Psychology and Finance
Traditional Versus Behavioral Finance
Prediction
Behavioral Finance
Sources of Cognitive Errors
Bias and Wealth Impact
What to Expect
Summary • Questions • Notes
Chapter 2 Overconfidence
Overconfidence Affects Investor
Decisions
Overconfident Trading
Overconfidence and the Market
Overconfidence and Risk
Illusion of Knowledge
Who Is Overconfident?
Illusion of Control
Choice
Outcome Sequence
Task Familiarity
Information
Active Involvement
Past Successes
Online Trading
Online Trading and Performance
Summary • Questions • Notes
Chapter 3 Pride and Regret
Disposition Effect
Disposition Effect and Wealth
Tests of Avoiding Regret and Seeking Pride
International Tests of the Disposition Effect
Disposition Outside the Stock Market
Selling Winners Too Soon and Holding Losers Too Long
Disposition Effect and News
Reference Points
Reference Point Adaptation
Can the Disposition Effect Impact the Market?
Disposition and Investor Sophistication
Buying Back Stock Previously Sold
Summary • Questions • Notes
Chapter 4 Risk Perceptions
House-Money Effect
Snakebite (or Risk Aversion)
Trying to Break Even
Effect on Investors
Endowment (or Status Quo Bias) Effects
Endowment and Investors
Perception of Investment Risk
Memory and Decision Making
Memory and Investment Decisions
Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance and Investing
Nature or Nurture?
Summary • Questions • Notes
Chapter 5 Decision Frames
Framing and Choice
Framing and Investing
Framing and the Risk-Return
Relationship
Framing and Prediction
Thinking Mode and Decision Processes
Measuring Thinking Mode
Risk Framing and Thinking Style
Framing Financial Decisions
Pension Decisions
Payday Loans
Summary • Questions • Notes
Chapter 6 Mental Accounting
Mental Budgeting
Matching Costs to Benefits
Matching Debt
Sunk-Cost Effect
Economic Impact
Mental Accounting and Investing
Investor Trading
Asset Allocation
Market Impact
Summary • Questions • Notes
Chapter 7 Forming Portfolios
Modern Portfolio Theory
Mental Accounting and Portfolios
Perceptions on Risk
Risk Perception in the Real World
Building Behavioral Portfolios
Household Portfolios
Preferred Risk Habitat
Naïve Diversification
Retirement Plans
Summary • Questions • Notes
Chapter 8 Representativeness and Familiarity
Representativeness
Representativeness and Investing
Extrapolation Bias
Familiarity
Familiarity Breeds Investment
Local Bias
Market Impacts
Familiarity Breeds Investment Problems
Combining Familiarity and Representativeness Biases
Summary • Questions • Notes
Chapter 9 Social Interaction and Investing Talking the Talk
Imitate Thy Neighbor’s Portfolio
Social Environment
Investment Clubs
Investment Club Performance
Investment Clubs and Social Dynamics
The Media
Language
Speed Is Not of the Essence
Herding
Herding into Stocks
“A Rose.com by Any Other Name”
Short-Term Focus
Faith
Social Validation
Summary • Questions • Notes
Chapter 10 Emotion and Investment Decisions
Feelings and Decisions
Feelings and Finance
Feelings Affect Investment Decisions
Sunshine
Negative Emotions
Optimism
Sentiment
Market Bubbles
The Thrills of Investing
Summary • Questions • Notes
Chapter 11 Self-Control and Decision Making
Short-Term Versus Long-Term Focus
Controlling Yourself
Saving and Self-Control
401(k) and IRA Plans
Self-Control and Dividends
Beating the Biases
Strategy 1: Understand the Biases
Strategy 2: Know Why You Are Investing
Strategy 3: Have Quantitative Investment Criteria
Strategy 4: Diversify
Strategy 5: Control Your Investing Environment
Additional Rules of Thumb
Maybe an Advisor is Needed?
Using Biases for Good
Save More Tomorrow
Save and Win
Summary • Questions • Notes
Chapter 12 Psychology in the Mortgage Crisis
Mortgage Industry
Subprime Mortgages
Emotional Stress and Frame Manipulation
Society Cross-Subsidy
Households in Distress
Mortgage Default: Social Norms and Psychology
Government’s Use of Psychology in Mortgage Social Policy
Psychology Further Down the Mortgage Supply Chain
Summary • Questions • Notes
Preface
An old Wall Street adage states that two factors move the market: fear and greed. Many people would say that greed dominated during the tech bubble of the late 1990s and fear has ruled behavior in the recent financial crisis. Although true, this characterization is far too simplistic. The human mind is so sophisticated and human emotions are so complex that the emotions of fear and greed do not adequately describe the psychology that affects people as they make investment decisions. This book is one of the first to delve into this fascinating and important subject.
前言
有一则古老的华尔街格言说的是:市场是被两个因素驱动着-恐惧和贪婪。很多人会说，贪婪在上世纪90年代高科技泡沫期间主导了市场，而在最近一次金融危机中，则是恐惧情绪控制了人们的行为。尽管这话说得没错，但这种界定未免过于简单化了。人类的头脑和情感如此复杂，仅用恐惧和贪婪情绪来解释人们在决策中所受到的影响，显然是不够的。本书是最早探索这一重要且引人入胜的主题的专著之一。
Few other books provide this information because traditional finance has focused on developing the tools that investors use to optimize expected return and risk. This endeavor has been fruitful, yielding tools such as asset pricing models, portfolio theories, and option pricing. Although investors should use these tools in their investment decision making, they typically do not. This is because psychology affects our decisions more than financial theory does. Unfortunately, psychological biases inhibit one’s ability to make good investment decisions. By learning about your psychological biases, you can overcome them and increase your wealth.
由于传统金融学主要关注于开发供投资者优化期望回报和风险的工具，所以讨论（心理对投资决策影响）这一主题的图书较少见。传统金融学领域硕果累累，包含诸如资产定价模型、投资组合理论和期权定价等方法。尽管投资者应该在其投资决策过程中使用这些工具，但他们通常没有这样做，原因就在于心理效应对投资决策的影响要远大于财务理论。不幸的是，心理偏差会影响投资者做出正确的决定。通过学习了解这些心理偏差，你可以战胜它们，获得更多的财富。
You will notice that most of the chapters are structured similarly. A psychological bias is first described and illustrated with everyday behavior (like driving a car). The effect of the bias on investment decisions is then explained. Finally, academic studies are used to show that investors do indeed exhibit the problem. What we know about investor psychology is increasing rapidly. This fifth edition of The Psychology of Investing has a new chapter that describes the psychology involved in the mortgage industry and ensuing financial crisis. New evidence and ideas have been added to every chapter. Every chapter now has a summary, and additional discussion questions have been added.
你会留意到，大多数章节在结构上是相似的。首先是用日常行为事例（比如驾驶一辆轿车）对心理偏差做出描述，然后分析该偏差对投资决策的影响，最后是引用学术研究成果说明投资者确实存在这样的问题。我们对投资者心理学的认识正在不断深化。投资心理学（第5版）增加了一个新章节，描述了心理学在抵押贷款领域和金融危机爆发所起的作用。每一章都补充了新的证据和观点，而且增加了小结和讨论题。
This material does not replace the investment texts of traditional finance. Understanding psychological biases complements the traditional finance tools. Indeed, after reading this book, you should be convinced that traditional tools are valuable.
本书的内容并非是要取代传统金融中的投资理论，了解心理偏差，是对传统金融方法的一种补充。实际上，在读完本书之后，你会认识到传统金融工具的价值。
New to This Edition
Chapter 1: Psychology and Finance
• Updated the illustrations and financial crisis discussion
Chapter 2: Overconfidence
• Introduced a new subsection “Who Is Overconfident?”
• Added a Summary
Chapter 3: Pride and Regret
• Added a new section “Buying Back Stock Previously Sold”
• Added a new subsection “Reference Point Adaptation”
• Expanded discussion of mutual fund disposition effect
Chapter 4: Risk Perceptions
• Added a new section “Nature or Nurture?”
Chapter 5: Decision Frames
• Added a new subsection on framing in the payday lending industry
• Expanded discussion of IQ and investing
• Included a discussion and illustration of extremeness aversion
Chapter 6: Mental Accounting
• Included a Summary
Chapter 7: Forming Portfolios
• Added a new subsection “Preferred Risk Habitat”
• Added a discussion of the conditional 1/n heuristic
Chapter 8: Representativeness and Familiarity
• Added a new subsection “Market Impacts” for the price of home bias with a new figure
• Expanded familiarity with utility stock ownership
• More discussion of investor return chasing
Chapter 9: Social Interaction and Investing
• Added a new subsection “Language” and its influence
• Expanded stale news discussion
Chapter 10: Emotion and Investment Decisions
• Expanded the discussions of the impact of emotions in security pricing,specifically: Ramadan returns and NFL football game returns
Chapter 11: Self-Control and Decision Making
• Added a new subsection on the use of financial advisors
Chapter 12: Psychology in the Mortgage Crisis
• Added a new chapter that describes the psychology involved in the mortgage industry and ensuing financial crisis
新增的内容
第一章 心理学与金融学
更新了图表，增加了对金融危机的讨论
第二章 过度自信
增加了1小节“谁过度自信？”
增加了小结
第三章 自豪与悔恨
增加了2小节“买回之前卖出的股票”，“参考点调整”
增加了对“共同基金处置效应”的讨论
第四章 风险感知
增加了1小节“浑然天成还是后天培养”
第五章 决策框架
增加了1小节讨论“发薪日贷款”的框架效应
增加了关于IQ与投资的讨论
增加了关于极端逆反的讲解和讨论
第六章 心理账户
增加了小结
第七章 构建投资组合
增加了1小节“偏好的风险水平”
增加了对“有条件1/n启发式推断法”的讨论
第八章 代表性和熟悉程度
增加了1小节讨论“恋家偏好对市场影响”，增加了新图表
在熟悉程度一小节中增加了对持有公用股票的讨论
增加了对追求投资者回报的讨论
第九章 社交互动和投资
增加1小节“语言”及其影响
增加了对的过时新闻的讨论
第十章 情绪与投资决策
增加了对“情绪在证券定价中的影响”的讨论，特别是斋月投资回报和全美足球联赛投资回报
第十一章 自我控制与决策
增加了1小节讨论财务咨询师的使用
第十二章 次贷危机的心理学
本章为新章节，描述心理学在抵押贷款领域和金融危机爆发所起的作用。
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目 录
前言
第一章 心理学与金融
传统金融与行为金融
预测
行为金融学
认知错误的原因
偏差及对财富的影响
后续章节的内容概要
小结
第二章 过度自信
过度自信会影响投资决策
过度自信的心理与市场
知识错觉
控制错觉
网上交易
小结
第三章 自豪与懊悔
处置效应
处置效应与财富
避免懊悔及寻求自豪测试
兑现收益过快，持有亏损股过久
处置效应与消息
参考价格
参考点适应
处置效应会影响市场吗
买回之前卖出的股票
小结
第四章 风险感知
“赌资”效应
蛇咬效应（或者风险回避）
翻本效应
对投资者的影响
禀赋效应（现状偏差效应）
投资风险感知
记忆与决策
认知失谐
浑然天成还是后天培养
小结
第五章 决策框架
思维框架与选择
框架效应与投资
思维模式与决策过程
测试思维模式
风险框架效应与思维风格
投资决策的框架效应
小结
第六章 心理账户
心理预算
沉没成本效应
经济影响
心理会计与投资
小结
第七章 构建投资组合
现代投资组合理论
心理会计和投资组合
风险感知
构建行为投资组合
初级分散化投资
小结
第八章 代表性与熟悉程度
代表性
代表性与投资
熟悉程度
不熟不投
熟悉带来的投资问题
熟悉带来的思维偏差和代表性思维偏差的共同影响
小结
第九章 社会互动与投资
投资谈话
社交环境
投资俱乐部
媒体
速度并非制胜关键
从众效应
聚焦短线投资
小结
第十章 情绪与投资决策
情感与决策
情感与金融
情绪
市场泡沫
投资的快感
小结
第十一章 自我控制与决策
短线与长线
控制自我
储蓄与自我控制
401（k）计划和个人退休金帐户计划
自我控制与股利
其他经验法则
投资顾问需要吗
善用心理偏差
小结
第十二章 次贷危机的心理学
抵押贷款行业
陷入财务危机的家庭
心理压垮抵押贷款供应链
小结