马克思主义理论视野下P2P模式在社会主义中国非抵押、非熟人、非征信借贷的失败
作者：张京宏
时间：2021年8月3日星期二
在习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想指引下，继中国房地产市场强力调控、恒大资金链危机（昨日恒大出卖了所持有的腾讯11%股权价值人民币27亿，腾讯接盘）、教育培训行业K12非法补课被列为和卖淫、黑社会同级、多地归“扫黄打非”办治理后，深圳福田警方对喜投网实控人黄生进行了刑事立案并采取了强制措施，理由是涉嫌非法吸收公众存款。黄生是北京大学法学院毕业，是懂法律的，在银行工作过多年，是懂金融的，为什么走到这一步，其背后有怎样的家庭、妻子、朋友圈层？这个个案使得对2013年以来的中国P2P互联网金融模式的覆灭和彻底失败进行反思成为了必要。研究显示，中国不少P2P平台的创始人和实控人，具有北大和清华的教育背景，这些应当是精英中的精英人物，为何折戟沉沙？
马克思在《资本论》第三卷第389页中明确指出，信用是资本主义生产方式下，生息资本的借和贷的运动形式。在《资本论》中，马克思重点分析了商业信用和银行信用。商业信用的主要工具就是商业承兑汇票，比如恒大房地产的商票前些年到处流通，就是例子，商票背后的抵押品是看涨的刚需产品——房产。银行信用的主要载体是银行承兑汇票，信用证等。
马克思并没有研究私人的非生产的信用借贷。从孟加拉的尤努斯教授开始实践帮助贫苦的孟加拉妇女改善收入和生活的金融活动开始，树立了P2P的萌芽，Peer to Peer。在英文语言系统中，Peer和Poor 不同，和People也不同。People是广义的人群，不特定，Poor是穷人，缺乏支付能力和还债能力；Peer是贵族成员，有广义的国家税收作为收入来源。最早的P2P是贵族之间的私人借贷，都有固定的、以武力和政权保证的收入来源即税收供养，解决了还款来源问题，充其量就是还款周期是半年还是两年的问题。尤努斯教授获得诺奖，是因为创新，他把P2P应用到孟加拉的贫穷妇女阶层，并还款率高达90%以上，这种高还款率的保证，并不是道德高尚，而是一种有效的信用制约，熟人社会的评价制约，就是一个村的几个妇女互相担保，任何一个妇女不还款，除了违约，在村里就没脸混了，这很关键。
当我们去考察孟加拉的格莱珉银行的时候，其在孟加拉乡村的分公司简陋至极，在土地上铺上一张破席子，就坐下了办公谈事了。但尤努斯教授的创新，确实帮助了没有技能的孟加拉贫苦妇女掌握了技能，比如编织技能等，还给她们几十美元的贷款支持她们购买原材料，增加收益水平。
后来美国人感觉不错，消除贫苦了就没有人造反了，有利于世界稳定，于是一方面联合国农业发展相关部门支持尤努斯，另一方面美国福特基金会也支持尤努斯，同时美国人也学这种短期周转的借贷。但到了美国，就变了。美国是资本主义发达国家，这种借贷运动在美国很快演变成了Payloanday，发薪日贷款。我们考察美国芝加哥的Lendingclub,考察其他同类机构，发现美国的模式已经有浓烈的资本主义味道了，那就是借给你500美元，一周时间，利息50美元。这个模式在美国有强大的三大征信系统支持。如果用长期信贷的年利率标准计算，周利息10%，月利息40%，年利息480%，是不是高的可怕？但要注意其周期的短暂性。短期周转以及过桥资金的成本，不应当使用长期信贷的年利率概念，应当使用更合适的成本核算方式。
2013年以来互联网金融模式传播到了中国内地。P2P模式一到中国内里，迅速开始了适应国情的演变。如果在美国演变成短期周转借贷，符合美国法律的话，那么在中国，则是在没有任何法律限制的情况下的探索。刑法的几把达摩克里斯之剑悬在哪，不能立刻起作用，因为刑法本身的谦抑性和事后处置性决定了不能一上来就进行刑事法律评价。就这样，在立法滞后，征信空白，也没有采取贷款方熟人互相连带担保的风控，就疯狂发展。几个月时间，全国聪明人成立了几千家P2P公司，创始人构成五花八门，有之前批发白菜的，有之前开KTV的，有之前放高利贷的，也有之前干其他不相关行业的。随着跑马圈地，获客成本从人民币几块钱竞争到人民币八九百块钱，加上没有真正靠谱的优质资产支撑，很快演变成旁氏骗局。2020年中国监管部门宣布，P2P在中国彻底清零，国民财富损失了2万亿，相当于2020年全年GDP的2%；刑法评价非法吸收公众存款等的判决全国约2万人，20万从业人员失业，还有因为从事这个工作大量躺着中枪的缓刑和社区矫正人员。
《矛盾论》是重要的马克思主义理论文献。《矛盾论》告诉我们，牵牛要牵牛鼻子，看问题要看主要矛盾的主要方面。当我们总结分析这过去的七八年中国互联网金融P2P轰轰烈烈的借贷运动的失败，进行反思的时候，什么事最主要的导致失败的因素，就很关键。
我们的结论认为：“三非”是失败的关键因素。非抵押、非熟人、非征信，这三个条件的同时缺失，造成了中国互联网金融创新和P2P借贷运动的实践失败。银行借贷的特点是抵押贷款为主。抵押贷款看中的是还款能力。征信判断下的非抵押贷款看中的还款意愿，前提是经过分析认为贷款人有还款能力。熟人借贷的本质是更多熟人社会综合利益的牵制。在轰轰烈烈的牧歌式的中国互联网金融P2P创新运动中，一方面鱼龙混杂，夹杂了不少跑马圈地冲着骗钱来的人，同时也有真想创业的出发点并不是骗钱的人，另一方面贷款人方面没有抵押，没有征信，没有熟人社会制约，三无条件，所以坏账率是恐怖的。加上不断高涨的人员成本和获客成本，以及运营各种费用，最终P2P借贷运动在中国和戊戌变法一样惨痛失败。
疫情隔离期间，反思一些成败的行业历史，对国家和个人，都利大于弊。反思是一种素质，更是一种思维方式。随着征信体系的发展，我们相信，真正的互联网金融，在整理整顿之后，一定还有规范发展、服务人民群众的那一天。（完）
The failure of non-mortgage, non-acquaintances, non-credit loans in socialist China in the P2P model from the perspective of Marxist theory
Author: Zhang Jinghong
Time: Tuesday, August 3, 2021
Under the guidance of Xi Jinping’s thoughts on socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era, following the strong regulation of China’s real estate market, Evergrande’s capital chain crisis (Yesterday Evergrande sold 11% of Tencent’s equity value of RMB 2.7 billion, Tencent took over), education and training industry After K12 illegal make-up classes were listed as being at the same level as prostitution and the underworld, and in many places under the control of the "anti-vice and illegal" office, Shenzhen Futian police filed a criminal case against Huang Sheng, the actual controller of Xitou.com, and took compulsory measures on the grounds that they were suspected of being illegal. Attract public deposits. Huang Sheng graduated from Peking University Law School. He understands law. He has worked in a bank for many years and he understands finance. Why did he get to this point? What kind of family, wife, and circle of friends are behind him? This case makes it necessary to reflect on the collapse and complete failure of China's P2P Internet finance model since 2013. Research shows that many of the founders and actual controllers of P2P platforms in China have educational backgrounds from Peking University and Tsinghua University. These should be the elites among the elites. Why do they fall into the dust?
Marx clearly pointed out in the third volume of "Das Kapital" on page 389 that credit is a movement form of interest-bearing capital borrowing and lending under the capitalist mode of production. In "Das Kapital", Marx focused on analyzing commercial credit and bank credit. The main tool of commercial credit is commercial acceptance bills. For example, the commercial bills of Evergrande Real Estate circulated everywhere in the past few years. As an example, the collateral behind the commercial bills is a bullish rigid demand product-real estate. The main carriers of bank credit are bank acceptance drafts, letters of credit, etc.
Marx did not study private non-productive credit lending. Since Professor Yunus of Bangladesh began to practice financial activities to help poor Bangladeshi women improve their incomes and lives, the seeds of P2P, Peer to Peer, were established. In the English language system, Peer and Poor are different, and so are People. People are a broad group of people, not specific. Poor is a poor person and lacks the ability to pay and repay debts; Peer is a member of the nobility and has broad national taxes as a source of income. The earliest P2P was private lending between nobles, with a fixed source of income guaranteed by force and government, that is, taxation, which solved the problem of the source of repayment, at best, whether the repayment cycle was half a year or two years. Professor Yunus won the Nobel Prize because of innovation. He applied P2P to the poor women in Bangladesh, and the repayment rate was as high as 90%. This kind of guarantee of high repayment rate is not moral, but a kind of guarantee. Effective credit control and acquaintance society’s evaluation constraints are that several women in a village guarantee each other. Any woman who does not repay, except for breach of contract, will lose face in the village. This is very important.
When we went to investigate Grameen Bank in Bangladesh, its branch in the villages of Bangladesh was extremely rudimentary, spreading a tattered mat on the ground, and sitting down to talk about business. However, Professor Yunus's innovation has indeed helped poor Bangladeshi women without skills master skills, such as knitting skills, and gave them dozens of dollars in loans to support them in purchasing raw materials and increase their level of income.
Later, the Americans felt good. After poverty is eliminated, there will be no rebellion, which is conducive to the stability of the world. So on the one hand, the United Nations agricultural development department supports Yunus, on the other hand, the Ford Foundation of the United States also supports Yunus, and the Americans also Learn this kind of short-term turnover borrowing. But in the United States, it changed. The United States is a capitalist developed country, and this lending movement quickly evolved into Payloanday, payday loans in the United States. We inspected Lendingclub in Chicago, USA, and inspected other similar institutions, and found that the American model already has a strong taste of capitalism, that is, to lend you $500 for a week and interest of $50. This model is supported by three powerful credit reporting systems in the United States. If calculated by the annual interest rate standard of long-term credit, the weekly interest is 10%, the monthly interest is 40%, and the annual interest is 480%. Is it terribly high? But pay attention to the shortness of its cycle. The short-term turnover and the cost of bridge funds should not use the concept of long-term credit annual interest rates, and should use more appropriate cost accounting methods.
Since 2013, the Internet finance model has spread to mainland China. As soon as the P2P model arrived in China, it quickly began to adapt to the national conditions. If it evolves into short-term revolving loans in the United States and conforms to American law, then in China, it is an exploration without any legal restrictions. Where the several swords of Damocles in the criminal law hang, they cannot be effective immediately, because the modest nature of the criminal law itself and its post-disposal nature determine that the criminal law cannot be evaluated as soon as it comes up. In this way, when legislation is lagging behind, credit information is blank, and there is no risk control of mutual guarantees by acquaintances of lenders, it has developed frantically. Within a few months, smart people across the country have established thousands of P2P companies. The founders are diverse. Some have been wholesale cabbage, some have opened KTV before, some have used loan sharks, and some have worked in other unrelated industries. With the race to encircle the land, the cost of acquiring customers has ranged from a few renminbi to eight or nine hundred renminbi. Coupled with no real reliable high-quality asset support, it quickly evolved into a Ponzi scheme. In 2020, Chinese regulatory authorities announced that P2P will be completely wiped out in China, and national wealth has lost 2 trillion yuan, equivalent to 2% of GDP for the whole year of 2020; the criminal law appraisal of illegal absorption of public deposits and other judgments nationwide is about 20,000 people, 200,000 Practitioners are unemployed, and there are a large number of probation and community corrections personnel who have been shot because they are engaged in this work.
"On Contradiction" is an important Marxist theoretical document. "On Contradiction" tells us that to pull a bull's nose, to look at the problem depends on the main aspects of the main contradiction. When we summarize and analyze the failures of the vigorous P2P lending campaign in China's Internet finance in the past seven or eight years, and reflect on it, what is the most important factor leading to the failure is critical.
Our conclusion is that the "three nons" are the key factor in failure. The lack of non-mortgage, non-acquaintances, and non-credit information, these three conditions at the same time have caused the failure of China's Internet financial innovation and P2P lending movement. The characteristics of bank loans are mainly mortgage loans. Mortgage loans focus on the ability to repay. The willingness to repay a non-mortgage loan based on credit rating judgments is based on the assumption that the lender has the ability to repay after analysis. The essence of acquaintance lending is the containment of more acquaintances' comprehensive social interests. In the vigorous pastoral-style Chinese Internet finance P2P innovation movement, on the one hand, there is a mixture of fish and dragons, and there are many people who squeeze money out of the races, and at the same time, there are also people who really want to start a business. The lender has no mortgage, no credit, no social restrictions from acquaintances, and three unconditional, so the bad debt rate is terrifying. Coupled with rising personnel costs and customer acquisition costs, as well as various operating expenses, the P2P lending campaign failed in China as miserably as the Reform Movement of 1898.
During the quarantine period, reflecting on the history of some successes and failures in the industry has more advantages than disadvantages for the country and individuals. Reflection is a quality, but also a way of thinking. With the development of the credit information system, we believe that after the real Internet finance is organized and rectified, there must be a day for standardized development and service to the people. (Finish)