多米尼克国立大学孔子学院&离岸金融项目交流酒会致辞：先模仿 再创新

 

发言：张京宏

时间：2022.3.24

 

凯蒂女士、国立大学朋友、离岸金融机构朋友：

多米尼克是中国“一带一路”战略重要合作伙伴。2013年中国提供优惠贷款帮助多米尼克国立大学（Dominica National University）修建教学大楼，2019年双方教育合作组建国立大学孔子学院，进展良好。刚刚酒会开始前私下交流中，听国立大学朋友说，第一期孔子学院三十多个学生，学的不错。说有从中国西安来的孔子学院老师，今天没有见到。作为酒会发言，我首先感谢各位。

 

一

 

这次过来也不容易。大家应当知道，3月21日，就是三四天之前，中国东航波音737客机昆明飞广州在广西坠毁，现在几百人还在挖残骸。国内新闻报道说，飞机垂直降落，机身插入地面下面深度20米左右，搜索很难。这几天全球机票价格明显断崖式降价。中国国内上海到厦门机票人民币71块钱，上海到成都机票人民币88块钱。这价格尽管优惠，不过国内防疫，现在也很少有人乘坐。包机价格也腰斩。北京到成都9座小飞机包机平时22万人民币左右，东航空难后，几天时间价格变成10万元人民币左右。北京到新加坡包机也从人民币100万变成人民币60万。我们从孟加拉达卡包机到多米尼克爱德华奥索机场，15座价格也基本腰斩，16万美金即可，康先生说这些年包机价格突然降低这么明显还是第一次，之前也有民航客机坠毁案例，对机票价格影响从未有如此明显。这说明全球疫情下空难人们心理更恐慌。

前几天在达卡考察格莱珉银行和美国福特基金会合作事宜时候遇到一个搞心理学研究的教授（Professor），她说三年疫情下来全球差不多5%人口有不同程度心理抑郁疾病——按全球70亿人口粗略估计，就有3.5亿人口——1亿抑郁，1亿焦虑烦躁，1.5亿更严重。这个只能是仅供参考，缺乏准确数据调研和权威文献证据支持，是个粗略估计（沈宗南 张京宏：《企业管理和营销管理学术理论与实践文集》，世新大学出版中心，ISBN978-957-8462-95-3，2010年版）。当然，如果我们展开分析，也能大致定性。抑郁的群体主要是限制了自由活动，动不动封闭社区，无休止用棉棒棒在鼻孔里转圈圈，检查核酸；焦虑烦躁的群体主要是收入来源断裂，没有收入还不上车贷房贷，疫情下多个城市产生了成千上万法拍房——银行起诉房主断供，司法程序导致作为抵押品的房产被司法拍卖——刚刚国立大学朋友说孔子学院老师有从中国西安来的，中国西安今年疫情几个月导致法拍房猛增了二三十万套，这些都能在中国国内网站上看到。另外更严重的群体有可能是更为厉害的心理疾病。

 

二

 

这几年多米尼克有个国策，或叫国家战略（National strategy），就是计划发展离岸金融。我们这次过来主要是就离岸金融方面进行考察。交流下来，我们建议先模仿，可以先学学隔壁邻居维尔京群岛，人家搞注册公司，为其他国家提供VIE架构基点，也产生不菲利润。多米尼克现在也可以在一带一路政策环境下，学学邻居们，说好听点叫学习，直接说就是照抄作业，这没有什么不好。先学习，再创新。或说先模仿，再创新。多米尼克有法国、英国深厚渊源，包括英法在内一些发达国家特别是负利率国家资金都有需求，即通过类似多米尼克这样的地方，进行国际投资，产生增殖收益（张京宏：《利息伦理和借贷投融资》，经济日报出版社，ISBN978-7-5196-0498-1，2019年版）。需求是刚需。就看怎么设计和操作了。

 

三

 

这里机场还是非常小，大飞机过来都难以降落。七八万人口一个国家，地理位置很重要，是“一带一路”战略链条上很重要一环。既然多米尼克确定发展离岸金融既定国策，那么和中国进行合作是必然的，政策和政治关系良好，各方都有刚需，是一个很好时机。也欢迎各位通过中国驻多米尼克大使馆或通过孔子学院或通过各种渠道了解下中国国内项目。中国社会经济最近几十年发展快速，2021年国内GDP达到110万亿人民币以上，总量全球第二。现在有不少项目需要投资，外资可以FDI直接投资，也可以其他方式投资。多了解了解信息，抽时间看看，我主要在中国上海，也欢迎你们到中国上海来考察。这次来奥索（Oso）你们热情招待，下次去中国上海我们礼尚往来，招待你们。

五分钟时间差不多了，预祝大家交流愉快。谢谢。（完）

 

Speech by the Confucius Institute at Dominica National University & Offshore Financial Project Exchange Reception: Imitation first, then innovation

 

Speaker: Zhang Jinghong

Time: 2022.3.24

 

Ms. Katie, friends from National University, friends from offshore financial institutions:

Dominica is an important partner of China's "Belt and Road" strategy. In 2013, China provided preferential loans to help Dominica National University build a teaching building. In 2019, the two sides cooperated in education to establish the Confucius Institute at the National University, which is progressing well. In a private exchange just before the reception, I heard from a friend from the National University that there were more than 30 students at the Confucius Institute in the first phase, and they were doing well. It is said that there are teachers from the Confucius Institute from Xi'an, China, but I have not seen them today. As a reception speaker, I would like to first thank you all.

 

one

 

It wasn't easy to come here this time. Everyone should know that on March 21, just three or four days ago, China Eastern Airlines Boeing 737 crashed in Guangxi from Kunming to Guangzhou, and now hundreds of people are still digging the wreckage. Domestic news reports said that the plane landed vertically and the fuselage was inserted into the ground at a depth of about 20 meters, making it difficult to search. In the past few days, the price of air tickets around the world has obviously fallen off a cliff. The domestic air ticket from Shanghai to Xiamen is 71 yuan, and the air ticket from Shanghai to Chengdu is 88 yuan. Although this price is favorable, but domestic epidemic prevention, few people take it now. Charter prices are also cut in half. The 9-seater charter flight from Beijing to Chengdu is usually around RMB 220,000. After the disaster of China Eastern Airlines, the price became around RMB 100,000 in a few days. The charter flight from Beijing to Singapore has also changed from RMB 1 million to RMB 600,000. We chartered a flight from Dhaka, Bangladesh to Dominica Edward Osso Airport, and the price of 15 seats was basically cut in half, which was only US$160,000. Mr. Kang said that this is the first time that the price of a charter flight has suddenly dropped so obviously in recent years. There have also been cases of civil airliner crashes before. The impact on airfare prices has never been more pronounced. This shows that people in air disasters are more panicked under the global epidemic.

A few days ago, when I was investigating the cooperation between Grameen Bank and the Ford Foundation in Dhaka, I met a professor who was engaged in psychological research. She said that after the three-year epidemic, almost 5% of the world’s population has varying degrees of mental depression— - According to a rough estimate of the world's 7 billion people, there are 350 million people - 100 million depressed, 100 million anxious and irritable, 150 million more serious. This can only be used for reference only. It lacks accurate data research and authoritative literature evidence to support it. 95-3, 2010 edition). Of course, if we expand the analysis, it can also be roughly qualitative. Depressed groups mainly restrict their free activities, close communities at all times, and endlessly use cotton swabs in their nostrils to check nucleic acids; anxious and irritable groups are mainly because their sources of income are broken. Thousands of houses have been auctioned off in many cities - the bank sued the owner to cut off the mortgage, and the judicial process led to the auction of the property as collateral - just now, a friend from the National University said that the teachers of the Confucius Institute came from Xi'an, China. The epidemic in Xi'an this year has led to a surge of 200,000 to 300,000 foreclosures, all of which can be seen on Chinese domestic websites. In addition, more serious groups may have more severe mental illnesses.

 

two

 

In recent years, Dominica has a national policy, or National strategy, which is to plan to develop offshore finance. This time we came here mainly to investigate offshore finance. After the exchange, we suggest to imitate first. You can learn from the Virgin Islands next door, and they will set up registered companies to provide VIE structure bases for other countries, which will also generate a lot of profits. Dominica can now also learn from its neighbors in the context of the Belt and Road policy. It is called learning if you say it nicely, or just copying homework. There is nothing wrong with it. Learn first, then innovate. Or imitate first, then innovate. Dominica has deep roots in France and the United Kingdom. Some developed countries, including Britain and France, especially countries with negative interest rates, have demand for funds. That is, through places like Dominica, international investment can be made to generate proliferating income (Zhang Jinghong: "Interest Ethics and Borrowing Investments". Financing", Economic Daily Press, ISBN978-7-5196-0498-1, 2019 edition). Demand is just need. It depends on how it is designed and operated.

 

three

 

The airport here is still very small, and it is difficult for large planes to land. A country with a population of 70,000 to 80,000 people, its geographical location is very important, and it is an important link in the strategic chain of the "Belt and Road". Since Dominica has determined the established national policy of developing offshore finance, it is inevitable to cooperate with China. The policy and political relationship is good, and all parties have rigid needs. This is a good time. You are also welcome to learn about domestic projects in China through the Chinese Embassy in Dominica or through the Confucius Institute or through various channels. China's social economy has developed rapidly in recent decades. In 2021, the domestic GDP will reach more than 110 trillion yuan, the second largest in the world. Now there are many projects that need to be invested, and foreign capital can invest directly through FDI or in other ways. Learn more about the information and take time to see it. I am mainly in Shanghai, China. You are also welcome to visit Shanghai, China. This time you come to Oso (Oso) to welcome you warmly. Next time you go to Shanghai, China, we will treat you with courtesy and hospitality.

It's almost five minutes, I wish you a happy exchange. thanks. (over)