宋圭武观点2：世界需要超越凯恩斯主义

世界需要超越凯恩斯主义。

凯恩斯主义的缺陷是多方面的。首先，凯恩斯主义是一种短期经济学，而不是一种长期经济学。凯恩斯注重刺激需求的政策，其效应主要体现在短期的经济增长上，但从长期看，却是问题多多。一是催生滞胀；二是不断刺激需求的政策，在长期内，必然导致信用的不断扩张和债务的不断积累，一旦信用和债务链条断裂，必然就会引发信用危机和债务危机，并由信用危机和债务危机引发经济危机。其次，凯恩斯主义只看到了经济效率，而没有看到社会公平。政府扩张政策的实施，若同时加上更加公平的分配政策，就可能减少贫富差距的拉大。但若在实行扩张政策的同时，强调分配的自由市场原则，在这种情况下，受益最多的往往是大企业和强势团体以及富裕阶层，而穷人往往是受益最少的群体,这种情况往往是导致社会贫富差距进一步扩大。而财富分配不公，必将引发诸多社会问题。再次，凯恩斯主义只看到“节俭的悖论”，而没有看到“浪费的悖论”。从局部和短期看，节俭固然可以减少需求，不利于刺激经济，但从长期和整体看，实际情况并不是这样。其一，节俭对一个人或家庭而言，只是导致一个人的支出出现在不同的时间段而已，而并不是不支出，所以，由节俭导致的一个人的需求并不是减少，而是需求在不同时间段的重新配置。一个人有了储蓄，最终都是要花出去的，不可能一直留着不消费。若一个人在有生之年没有消费完自己的储蓄，自己的后代最终也会消费这部分储蓄的。所以，所谓“节俭的悖论”，只具有静态的意义，但现实不是静态的，而是沿时间动态展开的。其二，节俭有利于家庭稳定。有了家庭稳定，也就有了社会稳定的基础。其三，节俭有利于环境的保护。其四，节俭有利于提高投资效率。在居民普遍节俭的情况下，需求就是有限的，企业家投资就需要谨慎，不能盲目，这有利于选择最有效的投资项目。同时，由于储蓄充足，银行资金宽裕，就是有些企业投资失败，也容易得到银行再融资，旧的项目也容易得到改造和淘汰。其五，节俭有利于社会道德建设。所以，凯恩斯的所谓的“节俭的悖论”，只是一个理论上的局部逻辑推演。凯恩斯只看到了经济效果，而没有看到环境和社会的效果，只看到了短期效果，而没有看到长期效果，或是只看到了局部效果，而没有看到全局效果。所以，在现实中，我们应坚决提倡节俭。从长期和整体看，只有“浪费的悖论”，而没有“节俭的悖论”。第四，凯恩斯主义治理经济危机的措施是只注重治标，而不注重治本。治理经济危机，刺激需求是治标不治本，财富均衡才是治本。从历史上每次经济危机产生的原因看，背后都有财富不均衡的深层背景。第五，凯恩斯主义只想到政治家是“道德人”，而没有想到政治家也是“经济人”。凯恩斯主义刺激需要的短期政策往往会被机会主义的政治家或党派所利用，成为操纵选举的有效工具。第六，凯恩斯主义只看到人的物质满足，而没有看到人的精神满足。第七，凯恩斯主义只看到需求方面的重要性，而没有看到供给方面的重要性。我们既要重视需求，也要重视供给。供给和需求是经济循环链条上的两个节点，是互相影响的两个方面。

目前，世界经济发展出现的诸多问题，要求我们需要重新认识凯恩斯主义，需要对凯恩斯主义进行超越。首先，要更加注重财富分配的均衡问题。其次，要用国民幸福度的提高代替GDP的增加。再次，各国应建立相对独立的经济体系。第四，改革货币金融制度，对信用扩张要进行限制。第五，要更多关注社会事业的资源配置问题。第六，要注重资源配置的多重均衡。资源配置均衡应包括四大均衡：时间均衡、空间均衡、价值均衡、实体均衡。第七，要更加重视发展农业等产业。第八，要重视节约，提倡构建节约型社会。第九，大力发展绿色经济。第十，要更加关注人文道德和人的精神层面的建设。第十一，拒绝战争，反对扩军备战。

Song's Viewpoint 2: The World Needs to Go Beyond Keynesianism

The world needs to go beyond Keynesianism. Keynesianism has many flaws.First of all, Keynesianism is a kind of short-term economics, rather than a long-term economics.Keynes focused on stimulating demand policies, the effect of which was mainly reflected in the short-term economic growth, but in the long run, it is full of problems.First, it induced stagflation;second, the policy of constantly stimulating demand in the long run is bound to lead to the continuous expansion of credit and the continuous accumulation of debt. Once the chain of credit and debt breaks, it is bound to trigger credit crisis and debt crisis, and the economic crisis is triggered by credit crisis and debt crisis.Second, Keynesianism only saw economic efficiency, but did not see social equity.The implementation of government expansion policies, if coupled with more equitable distribution policies, may reduce the widening gap between the rich and the poor.But if the implementation of expansion policies at the same time emphasizes the free market principle of distribution, in this case, the most beneficiaries are often large enterprises, powerful groups and the rich class, while the poor are often the least beneficiary group, which often leads to a further widening gap between the rich and the poor.The unfair distribution of wealth will inevitably lead to many social problems. Third, Keynesianism only saw the "paradox of thrift", but did not see the "paradox of waste". From the local and short-term view, it is true that thrift can reduce demand and is not conducive to stimulating the economy, but from the long-term and overall view, the actual situation is not so. First, for an individual or a family, thrift only causes a person's expenditure to appear in different time periods, but not not spend, so the demand caused by thrift is not reduced, but the reconfiguration of demand in different time periods. A person with savings will eventually have to spend it, and can not keep it without consumption. If a person does not consume his savings in his lifetime, his offspring will eventually consume this part of the savings. Therefore, the so-called "paradox of thrift" only has static significance, but the reality is not static, but dynamic along the time. Second, thrift is conducive to family stability. With family stability, there is also the basis for social stability. Third, thrift is conducive to environmental protection. Fourth, thrift is conducive to improving investment efficiency. In the case of general thrift, the demand is limited, and entrepreneurs need to invest cautiously, not blindly, which is conducive to selecting the most effective investment projects. At the same time, due to sufficient savings and abundant bank funds, even if some enterprises fail in investment, they can easily get bank refinancing, and old projects can be easily transformed and eliminated. Fifth, thrift is conducive to social moral construction. Therefore, Keynes' so-called "paradox of thrift" is only a partial logical deduction in theory. Keynes only saw economic effects, but did not see environmental and social effects; only saw short-term effects, but did not see long-term effects; or only saw local effects, but did not see overall effects. Therefore, in reality, we should firmly advocate thrift. In the long run and as a whole, there is only "the paradox of waste", but no "the paradox of thrift". Fourth, Keynesian measures to deal with the economic crisis only focus on symptoms, but not on the root causes. To deal with the economic crisis, stimulating demand is only a symptom, not a root cause, and wealth equality is the root cause. From the causes of every economic crisis in history, there is a deep background of wealth inequality. Fifth, Keynesianism only thinks of politicians as "moral people", but does not think of politicians as "economic people". Keynesian short-term policies to stimulate demand are often used by opportunistic politicians or parties as effective tools to manipulate elections. Sixth, Keynesianism only saw the material satisfaction of people, but did not see the spiritual satisfaction of people.Seventh, Keynesianism only saw the importance of demand, but did not see the importance of supply.We should pay attention to both demand and supply.Supply and demand are two nodes in the economic cycle chain, and they are two aspects that affect each other. At present, many problems in the world economic development require us to re-understand Keynesianism and go beyond it.First, we should pay more attention to the balance of wealth distribution.Second, we should replace the increase of GDP with the increase of national happiness.Third, countries should establish relatively independent economic systems.Fourth, reform the monetary and financial systems and limit credit expansion.Fifth, we should pay more attention to the allocation of resources for social undertakings.Sixth, we should pay more attention to the multiple balance of resource allocation.The balance of resource allocation should include four balances: time balance, space balance, value balance and entity balance.Seventh, we should pay more attention to the development of agriculture and other industries.Eighth, we should pay attention to saving and advocate the construction of a thrifty society.Ninth, we should vigorously develop green economy.Tenth, we should pay more attention to the construction of human morality and people's spiritual level.Eleventh, we should refuse war and oppose the expansion of armaments and war preparations.