卢映西

 

 

    译者按：贝淡宁，加拿大人，2004年不远万里来到中国，把中国人民的教育事业当做他自己的事业，现为清华大学哲学系教授。这是什么精神？不知道。只知道他很容易让人想起他的老乡白求恩，这位英雄不仅为中国人民的抗日大业作出了巨大的具体贡献，还给我们这个民族留下了一份珍贵的精神遗产。下面我翻译的文章，是贝淡宁发表在英国《金融时报》上的，写下了他对当前中国共产党的观察和判断。这又很容易让人想起另一个外国人埃德加·斯诺。斯诺也是不远万里来到中国，在1936年间“卧底”延安，向全世界真实报道了中国共产党及其领袖的事迹，成书《西行漫记》。此书一出，国统区广大追求光明的青年们都看到了中国的希望。从白求恩、斯诺到贝淡宁，我们能感受到中共这几十年翻天覆地的变化（或者说是成长），从中也许会引出诸多感慨。当然，我翻译这篇文章是供批判的，作者的观点只是一家之言，不一定对。依我个人的看法，如果近几年中国不爆发经济危机，贝淡宁的赢面较大。如果是这样的话，体制内吃马克思饭的朋友就没几天好日子过了，所以要抓紧吃，吃撑了算。反之，假如经济危机真的来了，那一切都要重新商量。让危机来得更猛烈些吧！

 

 

June 21, 2015 1:38 pm

 

For China the end of the Communist party is nigh — but in name only

中国共产党将改旗易帜

 

Daniel Bell

贝淡宁

 

 

China’s economic troubles and increasingly rigid ideological controls have led prominent China watchers to forecast the crack-up of its political system. I share the view that the Chinese Communist party may soon be extinct — but the extinction will be in name only.

面对中国的经济下行和日趋严厉的意识形态控制，已经有一些“中国通”预言中国的政治体制即将崩溃。我也认为中共可能很快就要完了，但这仅仅是改旗易帜而已。

 

In fact, the CCP is neither communist nor a party. Few Chinese believe it will abolish the market economy and lead the march to higher communism. It is “Leninist” in the sense that it is vertically organised and rules supreme over the state apparatus but it lacks other vital features, such as the idea that class conflict is the motor of history, a commitment to the idea of communism at home, and support for revolutionary overthrow of capitalist regimes abroad.

事实上，现在的中共与共产主义毫无关系，没人相信中共会摒弃市场经济向更高级的共产主义进军。只有在党对国家机构自上而下的领导机制中，还能看到一点“列宁主义”的影子，但列宁主义的其他核心内容不见了，如阶级斗争是历史动力的思想、在国内为共产主义理想奋斗、在国外支持推翻资本主义制度的革命等。

 

And the days of Leninist-style political mobilisation are long gone because the party must be sensitive to public opinion. The CCP can mobilise around causes such as its anti-corruption drive if there is already social demand; but no longer around hare-brained schemes such as the Great Leap Forward, which radically conflict with what people want and what most scholars see as sensible.

但由于要顾及公众舆论，列宁主义式的政治动员机制已经不再好使。中共可以发起反映社会呼声的大动作，比如反腐；却无法再一厢情愿地大搞与群众和知识分子意见相左的运动，比如大跃进。

 

Nor is the CCP a political party. In the past three decades, it has (re-)established a meritocratic system similar to that of imperial China: government officials are selected using exams, then promoted based on performance on lower rungs. With 86m members, the CCP is a pluralistic organisation that co-opts leaders of different sectors of society, including keen capitalists, and it aims to represent the whole country.

中共也不像一个有政治色彩的政党。在过去30年中，中共建立（也可以说重建）了类似于传统王朝的一套精英治理体制：政府官员通过考试录用，凭政绩升迁。拥有8600万党员的中共已经是成分复杂的组织，囊括社会各方面的精英，包括新近暴富的资本家，最终将会成为全民党。

 

It is puzzling that the CCP should cling to its name given widespread antipathy in China to communism. Even party members distrust Marxism, and most students dread their compulsory Marxism classes. The very idea of a party that represents part of the population also has negative overtones. Confucius criticised quarrelsome people who associate along party lines, and surveys in China show a preference for “guardianship discourse” with elites responsible for the good of the whole society.

继续沿用在中国遭致普遍反感的“共产”名称显然已不合时宜。即使是党员也不再相信马克思主义了，多数学生都不愿上强制性的马克思主义课程。“党”在中国传统上也不是好词，孔子就说过“君子不党”，况且调查显示中国民众向往的是由代表全社会利益的精英主导的“贤能政治”。

 

So why does the CCP stick with the name? It makes sense to change it to something — say, the Chinese Meritocratic Union — that better corresponds with the reality of the organisation, as well as to what it aspires to be.

所以何必非得坚持“共产党”？改名才是顺理成章的，比如改成“中国精英联盟”——这与该组织的现实状况还比较相符，或者愿意改成别的名称也行。

 

In informal political talk in Beijing, there is often agreement that the name should be changed. It is also recognised that it cannot be changed now because the organisation still draws on CCP history for its ideological legitimacy.

在京城非正式的政治谈话中，人们常说党的名称该改了，现在不改是因为还需要党的历史功绩充当意识形态合法性。

 

Yet the past 30 years have on balance been positive; and furthermore the CCP is increasingly looking to the long run of Chinese history for ideological legitimacy. The more it identifies with pre-revolutionary history, the more it can distance itself from the recent past.

然而过去30年来观念已经大变，中共越来越倚仗悠久的中国历史支持自己的意识形态合法性。对革命前的历史认同越多，中共离自己的革命史就越远。

 

Most important is to improve political meritocracy. The CCP does not need a unifying ideology, so long as people agree that the political system does a good job of selecting public officials with superior qualities. The pressing problem of corruption casts doubt on the question of virtue. So the anti-corruption campaign is essential to buttressing the legitimacy of the CCP, though we will not see results for a few years.

最重要的是改进政治精英的选拔制度。只要大家一致认为能选出高素质政府官员的制度就是好制度，中共并不需要统一的思想。目前迫在眉睫的腐败问题让人怀疑官员中到底还有几个好人，所以反腐是中共合法性的必然要求，尽管反腐运动的效果未必在近期内显现。

 

Another reason the name cannot be changed now owes more to Confucianism than to communism. Revolutionary heroes who fought to establish a great nation are still attached to the name. Filial piety is a core value in China, and dutiful sons and daughters should not upset the elderly — especially those who sacrificed for the country. Sometimes harmony matters more than truth.

另一个不能改名的理由更多出于儒家传统而不是共产主义。打下江山的老一辈革命家仍对“共产党”这个名称感情深厚。孝道是中国儒家伦理的核心价值，孝顺的儿女不能忤逆长辈（特别是那些为国捐躯的先烈）。和谐的表象常常会掩盖真实的想法。

 

In a couple of decades, however, the generation of revolutionary heroes will have sadly left this world. At that point, there will be less reason to stick to an obsolete name that needlessly casts the ruling organisation in a negative light.

可是，再过20年，老一辈革命家将不可避免地离开这个世界，到那时，就没有多少理由坚守一个会给统治集团带来不必要负面影响的过时名称了。

 

So here is my prediction. In 2035, the CCP will still be in power but it will not be called the CCP.

所以在我看来，到2035年，中共仍在执政，只不过名称已经不再是中共。

 

The writer is a professor at Tsinghua University and author of ‘The China Model’

作者是清华大学教授，《中国模式》一书的作者。